Re: The 'Bone of Contention' -or- Why no one cares to discuss 'Peak Anything'

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

No more peak oil here for a while.  This discussion is mostly between two people.
Leigh says it will happen right away; David says no, but the discussion is not going
forward.

I do not have the certainty of either.  I know enough about economists' record on
predictions to realize that you should never assign a date to your predictions.

You can talk about trends, but trends can change.

As I mentioned before, as long as you accept that the total supply of oil is fixed,
a peak is a mathematical certainty at some time in the indefinite future.  We can
google all we want for evidence to support a quick peak or one decades in the
future, but that does not constitute proof.

If I were to bet, I would guess that a relatively near peak would be more likely,
but like the philosopher, Donald Rumsfeld, I am aware of the possibility of unknown
unknowns.
 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
michaelperelman.wordpress.com