CNN on "The end of oil"

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The end of oil
A small - but growing - group of experts think world oil production
will peak in the next few years, to devastating effect.
By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 14 2007: 2:50 PM EDT


....But its adherents are growing, and include some fairly well-known names.

In the coming week, a former chairman of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell
(Charts) is speaking at a peak oil conference in Ireland, as is former
U.S. Energy Secretary James Schlesinger.

Most peak-oil proponents simply don't believe the numbers put forward by
industry and the government.

The world will produce 118 million barrels of oil a day, up from its
current 85 million barrels per day, just to satisfy projected demand by
2030, according to the Energy Information Agency.

"That's never going to happen," said Richard Heinberg, a research fellow
at the Post Carbon Institute and author of three books on peak oil.

Heinberg says world production of regular crude oil actually peaked in
May 2005. He also says production in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing
countries is in decline, and that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964.

Most importantly, he says reserves in the Middle East, where EIA
predicts the bulk of new supply will come from, have been
"systematically overstated."

"Everyone just takes their figures at face value," Heinberg said. "But
they are national oil companies, they can't be audited."

In Full: http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/14/news/economy/peak_oil/?postversion=2007091414