proposed economic index number

[Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

A few years ago, I proposed an index number for predicting recessions:
the more that economists say that the business cycle has been solved,
the more likely a recession is on its way.

That's a leading indicator, but the Krugman Kolumn in today's NY TIMES
suggests a coincident indicator: the more confused economists are
about the immediate economic future, the more likely it is that a
recession is starting right now.

Since I use a PC rather than a Mac, I don't have the ability to cook
up these indicators. Doug?

Oh yes, how about a lagging indicator: we know that a recession has
happened to the extent that uncaring leftists are gleeful about the
economic situation.

--
Jim Devine / "Because things are the way they are, things will not
stay the way they are." -- Bertolt Brecht