Just Foreign Policy News, September 27, 2006

[Robert Naiman <naiman.uiuc@xxxxxxxxx>]

Today's JFP news has a progressive economist in it! With some really
funny quotes.

Just Foreign Policy News
September 27, 2006
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/index.html

Summary:
U.S.
David Sanger, writing in the New York Times, notes that three years
ago, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld asked, is our strategy successfully
killing or capturing terrorists faster than new enemies are being
created? The newly declassified National Intelligence Estimate on
terrorism concludes that the administration has failed the Rumsfeld
test.

Portions of a National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism the White
House released under pressure on Tuesday  said the invasion and
occupation of Iraq had become a "cause célèbre" for jihadists.

A New York Times editorial says the three declassified pages from the
report told us what any American should already know: he invasion of
Iraq was a cataclysmic disaster. The situation will get worse if
American forces leave. But neither the report nor the president
provide any  suggestion about how to avoid that inevitable disaster.

A panel of European data security officials on Tuesday put off a final
report on the legality of an American program to monitor millions of
international banking transactions. But they agreed to investigate
further whether EU laws were being violated.

Congress Tuesday was moving closer to passage of legislation on the
handling of terrorism suspects while all but giving up hope of
agreeing on a final bill to authorize the administration's
eavesdropping program. Democrats expressed rising concerns about
changes to the proposal for military trials.

Three foes of the habeas provision - Senators Specter, Leahy, and
Smith - introduced yesterday an amendment to overturn the
administration provision by allowing foreign nationals in military or
CIA custody to challenge the legality of their detentions after one
year.

Juan Cole writes that the real scandal is that the NIE was classified
at all. He notes that Bush repeated that the US was not in Iraq when
al-Qaeda hit the World Trade Center. But that al-Qaeda had other
grievances before does not mean that Bush's invasion and occupation of
Iraq cannot now generate more terrorism. Also, the US was "in Iraq" in
the 1990s. It is estimated that the US/UN sanctions killed 500,000
Iraqi children. This was something that radical Muslim terrorists of
the late 1990s were definitely exercised about.

Iran
Iran's president vowed Wednesday not to give up the right to nuclear
technology, as EU and Iranian diplomats met to see if Tehran might
suspend uranium enrichment and avoid the threat of sanctions. A
European diplomat confirmed a report from German magazine Der Spiegel,
which said the EU3 would be willing to begin preliminary talks with
Iran even if it has not suspended enrichment first.

Iraq
A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to
immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure
would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according
to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers. In
Baghdad, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would
feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent
favoring an immediate pullout.

Palestine
The Israeli human rights group B'Tselem published Wednesday a report
on the bombing of the power plant in Gaza on June 28th. The group
concluded that the Israeli bombing of the plant was a war crime under
international law.

John Dugard, UN special rapporteur on Palestinian human rights,
criticized Israel for turning Gaza into "a prison" and criticised
Canada, Europe and the US for cutting funds to the Palestinian
Authority.

Afghanistan
Afghanistan suffered two deadly bombings on Tuesday that killed 20
people, providing another sign of the increasing size and power of
suicide attacks and roadside bombs by insurgents.  Civilians
increasingly have been paying the price of the more frequent and
devastating attacks. More than 150 civilians have been killed by
suicide bombings this year, the head of the UN mission in Afghanistan,
Tom Koenigs, said recently, before the attacks on Tuesday.

Turkey
Fifty-six Kurdish mayors stood trial Tuesday, accused in Turkey's
latest freedom-of-speech case on charges of helping terrorists by
arguing to keep a Kurdish TV station on the air. The mayors were
indicted after writing a letter to the Danish Prime Minister asking
him not to pull the plug on the TV station. The mayors pleaded
innocent to the charges and defended their letter as ''free speech.''
A Turkish prosecutor demanded 15 years in prison for the mayors.

Ecuador
The front-runner in the October 15 presidential election said Monday
he is proud to call Venezuelan President Chavez his friend. He said he
would not extend the U.S. military's use of the Manta air base unless
Washington allowed an Ecuadorean military base in Miami.  Correa, a
U.S.-trained economist with a doctorate from the University of
Illinois at Urbana, said he would seek to renegotiate Ecuador's
foreign debt service, but would not rule out a moratorium on payments.
"The world is recognizing that the IMF and World Bank have not been a
part of the solution, but rather the problem," he said.

Argentina
President Kirchner and his wife, set out to win support
internationally last week as they have at home, by appearing beholden
to no one, the Washington Post reports. While he was trying to assure
New York's financial establishment Kirchner was crediting his
country's recent economic growth to the fact that his government
defies the recommendations of the IMF. When Cristina Kirchner was
pressed to explain Argentina's close ties with Venezuela's government,
she responded: "Nobody tells Argentina which friends to choose."

Contents:
U.S.
1) Study Doesn't Share Bush's Optimism on Terror Fight
David E. Sanger, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27assess.html
Three years ago, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld posed a critical
question: Is Washington's strategy successfully killing or capturing
terrorists faster than new enemies are being created? The newly
declassified National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism concludes
that the administration has failed the Rumsfeld test. Nowhere in the
assessment is any evidence to support Bush's assertion this month that
"America is winning the war on terror." While the spread of
self-described jihadists is hard to measure, the report says, the
terrorists "are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion."
It says that a continuation of that trend would lead "to increasing
attacks worldwide" and that "the underlying factors fueling the spread
of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities."

2) Backing Policy, President Issues Terror Estimate
Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/world/middleeast/27intel.html
Portions of a National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism the White
House released under pressure on Tuesday  said the invasion and
occupation of Iraq had become a "cause célèbre" for jihadists. The
report, a comprehensive assessment of terrorism produced in April by
American intelligence agencies, identified the jihad in Iraq as one of
four underlying factors fueling the spread of the Islamic radicalism,
along with entrenched grievances, the slow pace of reform and
pervasive anti-American sentiment.

3) The Fine Art of Declassification
Editorial, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/opinion/27wed1.html
It's hard to think of a president more devoted to secrecy than
President Bush. Except when it suits Bush politically to give the
public a glimpse of the secrets. Yesterday he ordered the
declassification of a fraction of a report by US intelligence agencies
on the terrorist threat. Bush said he wanted to release the document
so voters would not be confused about terrorism or the war when they
voted for Congressional candidates in November. But the three
declassified pages from what is certainly a voluminous report told us
what any American with a newspaper, television or Internet connection
should already know. The invasion of Iraq was a cataclysmic disaster.
The current situation will get worse if American forces leave.
Unfortunately, neither the report nor the president provide even a
glimmer of a suggestion about how to avoid that inevitable disaster.

4) Europe Panel Defers Report on Bank Data Sifting
Associated Press, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27swift.html
A panel of European data security officials on Tuesday put off a final
report on the legality of an American program to monitor millions of
international banking transactions. But they said they had "immediate
concerns" about the arrangement. The officials agreed to investigate
further whether EU laws were being violated by a Belgium consortium's
sharing of confidential banking records with American officials. An EU
spokesman said officials would meet in November and would issue an
opinion, including possible recommendations for safeguards that EU
governments should adopt to prevent the improper transfer of private
banking records. The November meeting will also assess an
investigation by the Belgian National Bank, to see whether the banking
consortium violated Belgian privacy policies and similar EU rules. The
report is due in a few weeks.

5) Deal Likely on Detainees but Not on Wiretapping
Carl Hulse & Kate Zernike, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27detain.html

Congress Tuesday was moving closer to passage of legislation on the
handling of terrorism suspects while all but giving up hope of
agreeing on a final bill to authorize the administration's
eavesdropping program. Lawmakers said it appeared doubtful that bills
covering the NSA's eavesdropping program could pass both houses and be
reconciled before Congress adjourns this weekend. But Republicans were
optimistic about eliminating last-minute concerns over a separate
measure laying out rules for interrogating terrorism suspects and
trying them before military tribunals. They said they were hoping to
send the bill to Bush by the end of the week. Democrats expressed
rising concerns about changes to the proposal that they said went
beyond what Senator Frist, the Republican leader, had described Monday
as merely "technical changes." The changes had been made over the
weekend.

In one change, the original language said that a suspect had the right
to "examine and respond to" all evidence used against him. Senators
Graham, Warner and McCain had insisted the provision was necessary to
prevent secret trials. The bill submitted Monday dropped the word
"examine," reviving complaints about secret trials, this time from
Democrats. In another, the compromise said that evidence seized
"outside the United States" could be admitted in court even if it had
been obtained without a search warrant, a provision to deal with the
unusual circumstances of seizing evidence on the battlefield.

The bill introduced Monday dropped the words "outside the United
States," which Democrats said meant prosecutors could ignore American
legal standards on search warrants within the country. The bill also
broadened the definition of unlawful enemy combatant, from anyone
"engaged in hostilities against the United States" to anyone who "has
purposefully and materially supported hostilities against the United
States."

6) Detainee Bill in Final Stages
White House Appears to Be Winning Wide Legal Latitude R. Jeffrey Smith
& Charles Babington, Washington Post, September 27, 2006; A04
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601638.html
National security adviser Stephen Hadley met with Republican senators
yesterday in an effort to reach final agreement on legislation that
would govern the military trials of terrorism suspects, but they did
not resolve a dispute over whether the captives should have access to
U.S. courts. The measure nonetheless appears likely to win approval by
the time Congress adjourns at the end of this week. A vote is expected
in the House today. The Senate-White House negotiations centered on
what is known as a "court-stripping" provision that bars U.S. courts
from considering habeas corpus filings by detainees over their
confinement and treatment. It affirms the Bush administration's
assertion that it has an incontestable right to hold persons detained
as "unlawful enemy combatants" for the duration of the battle against
terrorism.

"Habeas has to be resolved," and will most likely be addressed on the
Senate floor, Senator Warner said. Senate leadership aides said floor
debate could begin today. Three foes of the habeas provision -
Senators Specter, Leahy, and Smith - introduced yesterday an amendment
to overturn the administration provision by allowing foreign nationals
in military or CIA custody to challenge the legality of their
detentions after one year. Human rights groups and defense lawyers
have condemned the administration provision as unconstitutional. They
said it could leave detainees "to rot" in jail. 31 former ambassadors,
including 20 who served in Republican administrations, jointly wrote
Congress this week that "to eliminate habeas corpus relief for the
citizens of other countries who have fallen into our hands cannot but
make a mockery" of the administration's efforts to promote democracy.
They also said that it would set a precedent that could jeopardize
U.S. diplomats and military personnel overseas.
Other recent changes to the bill aroused controversy yesterday. In
one, the administration would give the defense secretary wide latitude
to depart, without independent judicial scrutiny, from the rules and
detainee protections the legislation would create. It would allow him
to do so whenever he deems it "practicable or consistent with military
or intelligence activities." Georgetown law professor Neal Katyal, who
represented Hamdan in the case in which the Supreme Court overturned
in June the administration's previous military-trial procedures, said
the discretion is broad enough for the Defense Department to suspend a
presumption of innocence for defendants.
7) Partially Declassified NIE
Juan Cole, Informed Comment, Wednesday, September 27, 2006
http://www.juancole.com/2006/09/partially-declassified-nie-bush-became.html
I want to make 4 basic points:
1) The real scandal is that the NIE was classified at all. It is not
enough that the key judgments have been declassified. They should do
the whole thing.
2) The NIE clearly says that the Iraq War is now the main generator of
terrorism against the US and its allies. It certainly caused the
Madrid train bombings of March 2004 and the London subway bombings of
July 2005. The reaction against the US attack on and occupation of a
major Arab Muslim country like Iraq has been anger throughout the
Muslim world. You can see the rise of anti-US sentiments under Bush
most starkly in non-Arab countries such as Turkey and Indonesia which
used to like us.
3) Critics have pointed out that although the NIE said that Bush's
Iraq War has generated more terror against the US and its allies, it
also does not urge an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. But the NIE does
not urge "staying the course" as Bush and others imply. It says that
the Salafi Jihadis in Iraq should ideally be defeated. Bush is not
defeating them with his current policies.
4) Bush repeated that the US was not in Iraq when US embassies in
Africa and the USS Cole were hit by al-Qaeda or in 2001 when al-Qaeda
hit the World Trade Center. This is so stupid even Bush should be
ashamed for trotting it out. First, al-Qaeda had other grievances,
including the US military presence in Saudi Arabia and the Israeli
occupation of Jerusalem and its mistreatment of Palestinians. But that
al-Qaeda had these grievances does not mean that Bush's invasion and
occupation of Iraq cannot now generate more terrorism. Also, the US
was "in Iraq" in the 1990s. The US had the presence in Saudi Arabia in
part to fly surveillance and sometimes bombing raids on Iraq. And the
US had gotten the UN to impose a n economic boycott on Iraq that
excluded many medicines from the country. For a while they could not
get chlorine for water purification. It is estimated that the US/UN
sanctions killed 500,000 Iraqi children. This was something that
radical Muslim terrorists of the late 1990s were definitely exercised
about.


Iran
8) Ahmadinejad defiant as EU, Iran hold talks
Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; 12:27 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092700339.html
Iran's president vowed Wednesday not to give up the right to nuclear
technology, as EU and Iranian diplomats met to see if Tehran might
suspend uranium enrichment and avoid the threat of sanctions.
Ahmadinejad's comments came as European Union foreign policy chief
Javier Solana began a meeting with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali
Larijani.

The Washington Times reported this week that Iran was close to a deal
that would include a temporary, 90-day suspension of uranium
enrichment and clear the way for talks on incentives. But Iran
dismissed the report as propaganda. French officials said Larijani
offered to consider a temporary enrichment suspension at a meeting
with Solana two weeks ago. Western diplomats said details of this
possible suspension would be discussed at Wednesday's meeting in
Berlin.

A European diplomat confirmed a report from German magazine Der
Spiegel, which said the EU3 would be willing to begin preliminary
talks with Iran even if it has not suspended enrichment first. The
condition for starting such talks would be a positive result from
Solana's meetings with Larijani - in other words, an indication that
it would suspend enrichment, he said. Washington would not join in
until a full suspension was in place. "The idea would be to get Iran
back to the negotiating table," the diplomat said. Other diplomats
played down the possibility of a breakthrough at the Berlin meeting.

Iraq
9) Most Iraqis Favor Immediate U.S. Pullout, Polls Show
Leaders' Views Out of Step With Public
Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; A22
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/09/27/MNGPOLDIHT1.DTL
A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to
immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure
would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according
to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers. In
Baghdad, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would
feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent
of those asked favoring an immediate pullout. Another poll by the
Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of
Maryland, found 71 percent of Iraqis questioned want the Iraqi
government to ask foreign forces to depart within a year. By large
margins, Iraqis believed that the U.S. government would refuse the
request, with 77 percent of those polled saying the US intends keep
permanent military bases in the country.

The stark assessments contrast sharply with views expressed by the
government of Prime Minister al-Maliki. Last week at the UN, President
Talabani said coalition troops should remain in the country until
Iraqi security forces are "capable of putting an end to terrorism and
maintaining stability and security." "Only then will it be possible to
talk about a timetable for the withdrawal of the multinational forces
from Iraq," he said. Recent polls show many Iraqis in nearly every
part of the country disagree.

Palestine
10) B'Tselem: Bombing of Gaza power plant war crime
Human rights group B'Tselem determines bombing of power plant in Gaza
constitutes war crime and was carried out as 'vengeance'
Ynet News (Yedioth Ahronot online), 09.27.06, 09:24
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3308615,00.html
The human rights group B'Tselem published Wednesday a report on the
bombing of the power plant in Gaza on June 28th. Findings show the
majority of residents in the Gaza Strip are only intermittently
connected to the power supply and the power cut has adversely affected
medical services throughout the Strip. The report found: the majority
of the urban population is connected to the water supply for only two
to three hours a day and the sewer system has virtually collapsed; the
inability to refrigerate food supplies has exposed many to risk of
food poisoning; and the power cut has caused severe damage to small
businesses dependent on the electrical supply. The report foresees an
increasingly grave situation in the wake of the severe economic crises
prevalent in the Gaza Strip. B'Tselem has determined the IDF operation
was illegal and that according to international humanitarian law it is
deemed a war crime as it constitutes an attack on a clear civilian
target, as well as being "a banned collective punishment."

11) UN says Gaza crisis 'intolerable'
BBC News, Tuesday, 26 September 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5382976.stm
Standards of human rights in the Palestinian territories have fallen
to intolerable new levels, says a UN expert on the Mid-East conflict.
John Dugard said Israel was largely to blame for turning Gaza into "a
prison" and "throwing away the key". He also criticised Canada, Europe
and the US for cutting funds to the Palestinian Authority. Dugard, UN
special rapporteur on Palestinian human rights, said three-quarters of
Palestinians in Gaza now depended on food aid - a result of Israeli
military raids, blockades and demolitions.

Afghanistan
12) Attacks in Afghanistan Grow More Frequent and Lethal
Carlotta Gall, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/world/asia/27afghan.html
Afghanistan suffered two deadly bombings on Tuesday that killed 20
people, providing another sign of the increasing size and power of
suicide attacks and roadside bombs by insurgents, the New York Times
reports.

Turkey
13) Kurdish Mayors Stand Trial in Turkey
Associated Press, September 26, 2006, Filed at 7:58 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Turkey-Kurds-Trial.html
Fifty-six Kurdish mayors stood trial Tuesday, accused in Turkey's
latest freedom-of-speech case on charges of helping terrorists by
arguing to keep a Kurdish TV station on the air. The Roj television
station is banned in Turkey. It often features leaders of the main
outlawed Kurdish guerrilla group.The mayors from the pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party were indicted after writing a letter to the
Danish Prime Minister asking him not to pull the plug on the TV
station. The autonomy-seeking Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, has
stepped up its bombings and attacks across Turkey, targeting civilians
and tourists as well as troops. The PKK has been listed by the EU and
the US as a terrorist organization.  Appearing before the court, the
mayors pleaded innocent to the charges and defended their letter as
''free speech.'' A Turkish prosecutor demanded 15 years in prison for
the mayors.

Ecuador
14) Ecuador Candidate Defends Chavez Ties
Gonzalo Solano, Associated Press, Monday, September 25, 2006; 9:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/25/AR2006092501191.html
A tough-talking leftist economist and presidential front-runner in the
October 15 election said Monday he is proud to call Venezuelan
President Chavez his friend. Rafael Correa said he would not extend
the U.S. military's use of the Manta air base when the treaty runs out
in 2009. "A symbol of sovereignty is to not have foreign soldiers on
national soil," he said. The only way the U.S. military presence would
continue in Ecuador was if Washington allowed "an Ecuadorean military
base in Miami," he said. Correa said he does not see what the problem
is in his friendship with Chavez. "I am honored by the friendship," he
said. "If I am a friend of Chavez, 'What a mistake!' If I were a
friend of George Bush, they would have elected me man of the year,"
Correa said.

Correa, a U.S.-trained economist with a doctorate from the University
of Illinois at Urbana, leads his closest challenger Leon Roldos, a
center-left former vice president, in the polls. Correa said he would
seek to renegotiate Ecuador's foreign debt service, but would not rule
out a moratorium on payments to international lenders "if there isn't
openness on the part of the markets, multinationals and governments."
"The world is recognizing that the (International) Monetary Fund and
World Bank have not been a part of the solution, but rather the
problem," he said. "Life and national commitments come first, before
the pockets of creditors and supposed international commitments."

He said Ecuador cannot afford its current $2 billion debt service,
representing 7 percent of the country's gross domestic product.
"Ecuador cannot pay more than 3 percent," he said. Correa said he
would overhaul contracts with foreign oil firms for Ecuador to retain
a greater share of petroleum wealth and expressed hope that Ecuador
could eventually abandon the U.S. dollar as its official currency.

Correa served as outgoing President Palacio's economy minister.
Palacio demanded his resignation in August 2005 for failing to consult
him before publicly lambasting the World Bank over its denial of a
$100 million loan. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the
ballot - or at least 40 percent with a 10-percentage point advantage
over the nearest challenger - a runoff will be held on Nov. 26 between
the two top finishers.

Argentina
15) Argentine Power Duo Takes a Defiant Tone
President Kirchner and His Senator Wife Speak Their Minds at Home and Abroad
Monte Reel, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; A20
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601617.html
Argentina's two most powerful politicians - President Kirchner and his
wife, Sen. Cristina Kirchner - set out to win support internationally
last week the same way they've won it at home: by appearing beholden
to no one. At the same time he was trying to assure New York's
financial establishment that Argentina will respect the ground rules
of global finance, Kirchner was crediting his country's recent
economic growth to the fact that his government defies the
recommendations of the IMF, which he holds partly responsible for his
country's economic collapse in 2001. When Cristina Kirchner was
pressed during political forums to explain Argentina's close ties with
Venezuela's government, she responded: "Nobody tells Argentina which
friends to choose."

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
the majority of Americans.