Re: recession?

[Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

what's crucial at this point, it seems, is whether people _feel_ that
they are affected by a recession before the election in November and
then vote on that basis. (Official stats are really only important if
they jibe with personal experience.)

On 9/26/06, Sabri Oncu <sabri_oncu@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> The US term strucrure of interest rates has been
> inverted since July 17, 2006 although the degree
> of inversion as measured by the difference
> between the 3-month and 10-Year rates (CMTs) has
> been fluctuating from worse to worser to worse to
> worser over the course of these two and a half
> months. It is getting worser again.
>
> On top of that, NYT reports today that August
> 2006 has been the first month since 1993 in which
> the year on year median house price change is
> negative.
>
> To that add the hedge fund Amarath's implosion
> and its currently invisible after shock effects.
>
> Given all these indicators and our knowledge of
> history, that we are entering into a recession is
> almost guaranteed now, unless a miracle occurs.
> We may even be in recession but we cannot know
> this since it is the guys at NBER who will tell
> us that. ...
--
Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own
way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.