Re: Really Big Oil

[Jayson Funke <jfunke@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Raghu wrote:

?Not really. Words can also be used to mislead but numbers give you an
aura of scientific rigor. An opinion poll that says an election is a tie
probably does not sound as impressive as one that says X is ahead with
51.1% and a 3% margin of error. You can invent jargon ("dead heat") to
get the same effect but numbers work so much better. Of course adding
more decimal places makes your numbers look even more rigorous.

(I guess there are limits to public credulity because I have not seen a
survey that says 51.13% with 3.03% margin of error so far.)?

----------------------

Reminds me of Huff?s classic, How To Lie with Statistics ? here?s the
cover excerpt:

"There is terror in numbers," writes Darrell Huff in How to Lie with
Statistics. And nowhere does this terror translate to blind acceptance
of authority more than in the slippery world of averages, correlations,
graphs, and trends. Huff sought to break through "the daze that follows
the collision of statistics with the human mind" with this slim volume,
first published in 1954. The book remains relevant as a wake-up call for
people unaccustomed to examining the endless flow of numbers pouring
from Wall Street, Madison Avenue, and everywhere else someone has an axe
to grind, a point to prove, or a product to sell. "The secret language
of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to
sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify," warns Huff.

Jayson Funke

Graduate School of Geography
Clark University
950 Main Street
Worcester, MA 01610


-----Original Message-----
From: PEN-L list [mailto:PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of raghu
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2006 10:44 PM
To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Really Big Oil


On 8/10/06, Gar Lipow <gar.lipow@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Clemens quote "...lies, damn lies, and statistics".
>
> "Figures don't lie, but liars do figure."
>

Another Mark Twain* quote: "A half truth is a whole lie".  Which can 
be done as easily with words as numbers. 


Not really. Words can also be used to mislead but numbers give you an
aura of scientific rigor. An opinion poll that says an election is a tie
probably does not sound as impressive as one that says X is ahead with
51.1% and a 3% margin of error. You can invent jargon ("dead heat") to
get the same effect but numbers work so much better. Of course adding
more decimal places makes your numbers look even more rigorous.

(I guess there are limits to public credulity because I have not seen a
survey that says 51.13% with 3.03% margin of error so far.)

-raghu.