Fwd: Israel's Maximal Option

[Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Cole, Juan <jrcole@xxxxxxxxx>

Israel's Maximal Option

My article on the political and military aims of the Israeli
government and of Hizbullah is out at Salon.com.

Excerpt:

Israel has a range of options. It has already made one raid into the
south. It could pull back at any point. But the maximal option would
be to change the human geography and military posture of the Lebanese
south. The next stage could be a calibrated Israeli incursion into the
south, reminiscent of its Operation Litani in 1978. Israeli Maj. Gen.
Uzi Adam told reporters at a news conference of his advice to Lebanese
in the south: "We recommend that they leave their villages and homes
and go to the north of the country ... We are going to heavily attack
the south of Lebanon.'' Those Israelis who favor the maximalist option
hope that turning the militarized south into central and northern
Lebanon's problem will set the Maronite Christians, Sunnis and Druze
leaders even more resolutely against Hezbollah and provoke them to use
the Lebanese army to rein in or destroy the Shiite paramilitary.

Israeli Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter insisted that Hezbollah
rocket launchers be cleaned out of the area between Israel's northern
border and the Litani River, creating a sort of demilitarized Zone on
the model of the Koreas. He added ominously that the Israeli army
"should be instructed to operate without a time limit and without a
limit of means to apply heavy pressure on the residents of southern
Lebanon to evacuate northwards, thereby applying pressure on the
center of the Lebanese government." Dichter's statement appears to
envisage an Israeli attack on south Lebanon that will have as its goal
the displacement of tens or hundreds of thousands of Lebanese Shiites
into Beirut, burdening the city with a massive refugee problem. A
military spokesman said that a ground invasion was not being planned;
instead, Israel would attack with airstrikes and artillery fire.

Tens if not hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have already been
displaced. UNICEF's representative in Lebanon told Agence France-Press
that "The situation is both alarming and catastrophic. There are about
500,000 people displaced already."

If it comes about, the forced transfer of the Shiites of the south
would have several advantages for the Israelis. The depopulated
territory would make it easier to search for and destroy all the
Katyusha emplacements and the heavier missiles of which Hezbollah
boasted on Sunday. With Hezbollah's approximately 5,000 fighters
deprived of civilian cover, it would be easier to kill them. The
Israelis clearly anticipate that a refugee crisis in Beirut will put
pressure on the Lebanese government to turn on Hezbollah decisively
and to intervene against it militarily. Finally, they expect Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora, in the aftermath, to send the Lebanese army
south to take up positions along the border and so form a buffer
between Hezbollah and Israel.

How good is the maximalist plan enunciated by Israeli military and
government spokesmen? Ethically, it is monstrous, involving war crimes
on a vast scale insofar as it targets a civilian population for
forcible relocation. And practically, any such plan is doomed to
abject failure. '

--
Jim Devine / "You need a busload of faith to get by." -- Lou Reed.