The University of Chicago Explain the Logic of the War!

[michael perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

"War in Iraq versus Containment"
    NBER Working Paper No. W12092

 Contact:  STEVEN J. DAVIS
             University of Chicago, National
             Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
   Email:  SJD@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Auth-Page:  http://ssrn.com/author=44119

Co-Author:  KEVIN M. MURPHY
             University of Chicago, National
             Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
   Email:  murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Auth-Page:  http://ssrn.com/author=101802

Co-Author:  ROBERT H. TOPEL
             University of Chicago - Graduate
             School of Business, National Bureau of Economic
             Research (NBER)
   Email:  robert.topel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Auth-Page:  http://ssrn.com/author=75668

Full Text:  http://ssrn.com/abstract=889882

ABSTRACT: We consider three questions related to the choice
between war in Iraq and a continuation of the pre-war containment
policy. First, in terms of military resources, casualties and
expenditures for humanitarian assistance and reconstruction, is
war more or less costly for the United States than containment?
Second, compared to war and forcible regime change, would a
continuation of the containment policy have saved Iraqi lives?
Third, is war likely to bring about an improvement or
deterioration in the economic well-being of Iraqis? We address
these questions from an ex ante perspective as of early 2003.
According to our analysis, pre-invasion views about the likely
course of the Iraq intervention imply present value costs for the
United States in the range of $100 to $870 billion. Our estimated
present value cost for the containment policy is nearly $300
billion and ranges upward to $700 billion when we account for
several risks stressed by national security analysts. Our
analysis also indicates that war and forcible regime change will
yield large improvements in the economic well-being of most
Iraqis relative to their prospects under the containment policy,
and that the Iraqi death toll would likely be greater under
containment.

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Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Chico, CA 95929
530-898-5321
fax 530-898-5901