Why a "strong economy" is not helping the Republicans

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

from the April 21, 2006 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0421/p01s02-usec.html


Why a strong economy is no GOP asset

Republicans have struggled to get credit for low unemployment and steady
growth.

By
<http://www.csmonitor.com/cgi-bin/encryptmail.pl?ID=CCE9EEE4E1A0C6E5ECE4EDE1EEEE>Linda
Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON - Of all the problems Republicans face heading into the fall
political season, one of the most exasperating is the economy.

In many ways, they say, these are the best of times: Unemployment is at 4.7
percent, lower than the averages of the 1970s, '80s, and '90s. The economy
is showing strong, consistent growth, without significant inflation. And
the stock market is roaring along.

Yet many Americans just aren't impressed. A majority tell pollsters they
trust the Demo- crats more than the GOP to handle the economy. When asked
in an open-ended question which is the most important problem facing the
country today, respondents to a recent CBS News poll named "economy/jobs"
second after the Iraq war - and ahead of immigration, terrorism, and
healthcare.

"First, there's general concern about globalization and its effect on
American manufacturing jobs," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "We see low
unemployment, but the headlines are dominated by the thousands being laid
off by General Motors and Ford."

Underlying that, he adds, is concern about healthcare and being able to
afford and keep health insurance if something happens to one's job. The
latest run-up in gasoline prices also doesn't help the Republican-led
government in Washington, even if there's little it can do in the short
term about that.

Independent pollster John Zogby sees the public's skepticism over the
economy as part of a larger picture of overall concern over the direction
of the nation and a president struggling to recapture Americans'
confidence. "It's not just the economy," he says. "If we were at peace or
the war was going well or there was confidence in other areas, then the
economic news could be bolstered and people could begin to feel better."

In order to understand the full picture on public concerns about the
economy, he says, a raft of "secondary indicators" must be factored in:
health benefits, pensions, gasoline prices, as well as 401(k)s and stock
portfolios.

Even though stocks are strong again, memories of a market dive in the
not-too-distant past remain fresh. Mr. Zogby sees a 9/11 effect in people's
thinking, not just about the stock market but about other factors close to
home, such as safety and security - a concern that something terrible could
happen again.

Iraq is also dragging down overall confidence, says Daniel Mitchell, an
economist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in
Washington. And he blames Republican politicians for "being so fiscally
irresponsible" on the spending side of the budget. "Even if the tax cuts
have helped, between the bridge to nowhere and now the railroad to nowhere
people are probably figuring it's only a matter of time before the bills
come due and this all falls apart," he says.

For months, the Republicans have held a losing hand on the array of issues
facing the nation, and even on their strongest issue, terrorism, often the
best they can do is muster a tie with the Democrats in polls. But on the
economy, at least, the White House is hopeful that better use of the bully
pulpit can boost public confidence.

"The advantage the White House has on this issue, which they don't on other
issues, is the reality really is good," says Mr. Ayres. "The truth may not
set them free, but it might improve public perception. So someone with an
ability to articulate the good economic news in a compelling and memorable
way day after day after day could have an effect on public perception."

In a roundtable discussion with a group of mostly small-business people
Monday in Sterling, Va., President Bush acknowledged that "Americans need
to keep hearing" his message on the economy. On that day, Tax Day, he
stressed his push in Congress to make tax cuts permanent, and asked some at
the table to reveal how much they had already saved from tax cuts.

Sitting nearby was Treasury Secretary John Snow, who reinforced the
message. What remained unstated was the open secret that the White House is
shopping around for a new Treasury secretary, someone who can bring a new
voice to the economy-is-strong message - probably someone from the world of
economics or finance.

Meanwhile, debate rages among Democrats over how best to take advantage of
public disillusionment with Republican government, including the economy.
Are bumper stickers saying "Had Enough?" enough, or does the party really
need a multipart plan to persuade voters to toss out their incumbent
Republican members of Congress? Various Democrats - from Sen. Hillary
Rodman Clinton of New York to Clinton-era Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -
are launching strategies to spark debate.

In a recent speech in Chicago, Senator Clinton focused on the middle class,
arguing that "tax cuts are not the cure-all for everything that ails the
American economy." Secretary Rubin, in his newly launched initiative called
the Hamilton Project, has centered concerns on growing income inequality in
the US.

At a Monitor breakfast on Wednesday, Democratic National Committee chair
Howard Dean said "the problem with the president's, with the Republicans'
economy is that it's good for their base - 20 percent of the public - but
it's not so good for 80 percent of the public."


--

www.marxmail.org