Re: a poll of Iraqis by Iraqis

[Daniel Davies <dsquared@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

They nearly called it off because of the security situation, but they
(pretty heroically) pulled it off in the end.  On the other hand, the poll
is likely to underestimate the true level of support for Al-Sadr, Saddam and
the insurgents, for basically the same reasons that American polls
underestimate support for the Republicans.

best
dd

-----Original Message-----
From: PEN-L list [mailto:PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Doug
Henwood
Sent: 14 December 2005 19:24
To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: a poll of Iraqis by Iraqis


Michael Perelman wrote:

>I was curious about a different aspect of the poll.  Do you think
>they had people going
>door-to-door asking about the situation?  I wonder how many Iraqis
>have land lines?  I
>suspect many more have land mines.  Perhaps they just asked their
>translators or maybe they
>confined their poll to Kurdistan.

Here's the methodology graf from ABC's report on the poll:

METHODOLOGY - This poll was conducted for ABC News, Time magazine,
the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel by Oxford Research International.
Interviews were conducted Oct. 8-Nov. 22, 2005, in person, in Arabic
and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis age 15
and up. The results have a 2.5-point error margin. Details of the
survey methodology are available upon request.