FP on Peak Oil

[Leigh Meyers <leighcmeyers@xxxxxxxxx>]

>From FP's The Top 10 Stories You Missed in 2005
Oil's Opaque Outlook

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3315&print=1


With oil prices soaring this year, the debate over the future of this precious commodity heated up. 
But lost in the mix was ExxonMobilâs report The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View. 

The total oil output of non-OPEC producers, according to ExxonMobilâs projection, will peak around 2010, after which OPEC will have to add more than 1 million barrels per day, every year, to keep up with world demand by 2030. âIn 2003, Algeria produced 1.1 million barrels per day,â wrote energy analyst Alfred J. Cavallo in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. âA new Algeria would need to be brought on line in the Persian Gulf each and every year beyond 2010 just to keep up with the projected increase in demand.â Thatâs no easy prospect. To make matters worse, most OPEC countries, including vital âswing producerâ Saudi Arabia, do not allow independent audits of their oil reserves, so we may have even less warning of any future shortfalls. Under OPECâs quota system, members have every incentive to inflate their reserve figures: The more they claim to have, the more they can sell. The price of a barrel of black gold just went upâagain.

#33#


Addenda:
The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View
http://www.exxonmobil.co.uk/UK-English/Newsroom/UK_NR_Speech_EO_150904.asp

Energy Outlook 2004: 
http://www2.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/corporate/energyoutlook.pdf

NEW: Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (Early Release) - December 12 2005
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html


Leigh
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