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Re: Tomas Palley on China

To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Tomas Palley on China
From: Daniel Davies <dsquared@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 22:54:31 -0000

> raghu wrote:
>
>>  How does one interpret Stephen
>> Roach's "40% risk of a hard landing in 2006"?

the sensible Bayesian interpretation would be that if you offered Roach a
straight wager at odds of 5/2 or better he would take it.  I bet he wouldn't
though.

best
dd

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References:
- Re: Tomas Palley on China
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- Re: Tomas Palley on China, (continued)
  - Re: Tomas Palley on China, Julio Huato Tue 13 Dec 2005, 21:43 GMT

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