housing market

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Even when I have been wrong, I usually think that I have a fairly good
feel for the economy, but I cannot figure out how the US has avoided
bigger problems in the last couple of years.

The fron page of the Wall St. Journal reports housing inventiories
building up in some of the hottest markets & that speculators are
starting to shy from the market.  This could mean a flattening of
prices, a soft landing, or something more extreme.

I assume that the Maestro will do all that he can to put any big
problems off till January, when he retires.

Recent reports show a booming consumer market, but the automobile
industry may have eaten some of its seed corn by having a large part of
its potential buyers rush into the market, leaving a harder sell for
the future.

The balance of trade deteriorated further last month & oil prices
continue to rise  -- but it is impossible to disentangle speculative
pressures from so-called fundamentals.

A sour economy could push Bush out of Iraq or inspire him to invade
elsewhere.

In confusion ....
 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu