Re: oil refining conspiracy?

[Daniel Davies <dsquared@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

outages at refineries would not necessarily have all that much effect on the
price of *crude* oil.  I can construct an argument as to how it would
increase the backwardation in futures, but I don't think you could
systematically manipulate the spot price of crude this way.

dd

-----Original Message-----
From: PEN-L list [mailto:PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of michael
perelman
Sent: 09 August 2005 16:46
To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: oil refining conspiracy?


This sounds like the California electricity scam?  Could it be true?


Speculating without facts:


More Outages Hit U.S. Refineries

Recent Incidents Heighten
Concerns About Capacity;
Oil Nears $64 a Barrel

By *ANDREW DOWELL* and *BETH HEINSOHN *
*DOW JONES NEWSWIRES*
August 9, 2005; Page A2

Fresh upsets at U.S. refineries over the weekend extended an unusual
spate of outages that has raised concerns about fuel supplies and
contributed to a rise in oil prices on the New York futures market to
nearly $64 a barrel.

The rash of incidents over the past three weeks involves major
processing units and four fires at a time when refiners are trying to
run flat out to meet demand. The outages have put added stress on
already-constrained U.S. fuel-production capacity.

--

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Chico, CA 95929
530-898-5321
fax 530-898-5901