Re: Shiller on housing bubble

[Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx>]

Sam Gindin wrote:
> When the housing bubble bursts, there will be some pain, unevenly felt (some
> may even find they can afford the lower price of home) and there will be
> some 'adjustments' in the economy, some perhaps quite stabilizing (though
> this too will lead to some responses from the fed to ameliorate, to the
> extent it can, the depth of the crisis. But what more are people expecting
> than a semi-crash or a recession? Are people on the left arguing that a
> serious economic collapse and turning point in capitalism is imminent (Or
> only that we're in for a roller-coaster of a ride and some retructuring)?
> That a new movement will emerge out of this (rather than a working class
> intent to just get back to 'the good-old days' even if it means some
> concessions)?

I would maintain that the lingering impact of other economic strains
(crisis is an overused word) are already having a significant political
impact even if something like the Million Worker March was a bust (for
reasons having as much to do with the inexperience of the organizers.) The
growing unwillingness of American workers to put up with the war in Iraq is
being fueled in my opinion by economic pain which did not exist in the
Vietnam period. A couple of months ago I filled up the tank of the rented
car I was returning to NYC from upstate NY and was shocked to see that I
had to pay $28 for a fill-up. There is nothing that will hasten alienation
more from a government in the USA than this sort of thing. When those
mortgage payments are doubled after the interest portion is paid off, the
alienation will increase dramatically. Can you imagine what some working
class stiff will feel like after he has to commute from the hinterlands of
New Jersey or Pennsylvania to his job in Brooklyn with $3 per gallon
gasoline and monthly mortgage payments that have doubled? And with a
government that is awash in corruption, greed and hatred toward working
people? And that has no problem spending billions in an endless war in
Iraq? And that has no opposition from the Democrats? This is a political
environment that favors radical opposition. And if they reinstitute the
draft, the shit will really hit the fan.

> My own take is that in the absence of a working class already strong enough
> to limit the options facing capital and the state, the crisis will be
> limited...

There is such a working class, however. It is in Venezuela, Bolivia and
elsewhere. It is singularly unfortunate that it tends to escape the
attention of your colleagues at Socialist Register.