Re: Daniel's interest rate predictor

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Interesting mistakes can facilitate better conversations the obvious truths.

On Fri, Jun 17, 2005 at 09:42:07PM +0100, Daniel Davies wrote:
> I've just downloaded the data again and I can't see what I was thinking
> about.  I must have found some predictive information (this was about three
> years ago) because I published a broker's note on the subject.  But when I
> looked at the data (from www.cml.org.uk , the Council of Mortgage Lenders)
> it really doesn't look all that good at all.  UK borrowers took out a lot of
> variable rate mortages just before the 1997 peak, and switched to the
> fixed-rate product pretty seriously in 1999.  But they completely missed the
> 2001-2003 rate cut sequence and they don't seem to have changed their
> behaviour at all in the current cycle.  So sorry for bothering everyone
> really.
>
> best
> dd
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: PEN-L list [mailto:PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Michael
> Perelman
> Sent: 16 June 2005 23:25
> To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Daniel's interest rate predictor
>
>
> Could you please let us know about the predictive ability of the mortgage
> borrowers?
> How well would a model do that just extrapolated previous trends compared to
> the
> experts?  Of course, you could run into a problem with turning points.
>
> Also, in the US market, don't you also have a unique situation now with very
> loose
> lending standards.  Of course, that is not necessarily new.  My mother's
> cousin ran
> one of the larger S&L operations in California during the 60s.  After he
> died,
> another relative told me that one of his employees had lent huge amounts on
> a large number of brothels in SF.
>
>
>  --
> Michael Perelman
> Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
>
> Tel. 530-898-5321
> E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu