Daniel's interest rate predictor

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Could you please let us know about the predictive ability of the mortgage borrowers?
How well would a model do that just extrapolated previous trends compared to the
experts?  Of course, you could run into a problem with turning points.

Also, in the US market, don't you also have a unique situation now with very loose
lending standards.  Of course, that is not necessarily new.  My mother's cousin ran
one of the larger S&L operations in California during the 60s.  After he died,
another relative told me that one of his employees had lent huge amounts on
a large number of brothels in SF.


 --
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu