Re: Why Chavez defeated the oligarchs

[Marvin Gandall <marvgandall@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Johansen" <michele@xxxxxxxx>
To: <PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 2004 3:01 AM
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Why Chavez defeated the oligarchs

----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred Feldman" <ffeldman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, August 16, 2004 6:11 PM
Subject: Why Chavez defeated the oligarchs

----- Original Message -----
From: michael a. lebowitz
To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 2004 12:40 AM
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] victory?
----------------------------

The debate over the Chavez government's next moves is important, but the oil
factor will continue to loom large in Venezuelan politics and dictate the
pace of change. The high oil price is doing two things: 1) It is funding the
social programs which have encouraged the Venezuelan poor to mobilize in
support of the Chavez government, and 2) it is staying the US hand, at least
for the present; the Americans can't afford further roiling the oil markets,
and Venezuela is the fourth largest supplier of crude to the US. The
Americans are encouraging the Venezuelan bourgeoisie to accomodate to Chavez
for now, hoping that an eventual decline in the oil price will reduce its
dependency on Venezuelan oil shipments and impose further economic hardship
on the Venezuelan masses, creating more favourable conditions for a
counteroffensive by the enemies of the Bolivarian Revolution. Whether and
when and by how much oil prices go down is one of the big intangibles in
global politics right now, not least in Venezuela. Of course, in the very
unlikely event Chavez should take Alan Woods' advice and move to expropriate
the bourgeoisie, all bets are off and the US would almost certainly
intervene in force to assist the still large and formidable Venezuelan
middle class, nothwithstanding that it is presently tied up in Iraq.

Marv Gandall