Re: The End Of Management?

[Daniel Davies <dsquared@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

this is such crap.  Note that the "closer than the official forecast 75% of
the time" number shows up twice in different contexts.  Note also that you
would do better than the official forecast 50% of the time by simply
flipping a coin, so 75% seems a pretty low bar (if your playing a coin
flipping game, heads versus tails, the side that's ahead after three flips
will be the eventual winner 75% of the time).  And finally note that
problems like forecasting chip sales would have to be judged against a very
complicated and asymmetric loss function; underestimates are much less
harmful than overestimates.

Hanson put out a press release last year saying that the "revised" Policy
Analysis Market would be up and trading by March 2004.  I emailed him
offering to bet $500 that it wouldn't, but I never got a reply.

dd

-----Original Message-----
From: PEN-L list [mailto:PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Walker
Sent: 14 July 2004 23:43
To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: The End Of Management?


I love it! Total Information Awareness meets ParEcon. Robin Hanson,  may I
introduce you to Robin Hahnel...

Charles Brown wrote,

> TIME.com: The End Of Management? -- Jul. 12, 2004
>
http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1101040712-660965,00.html

Tom Walker
604 255 4812