Re: Putin

[Chris Doss <lookoverhere1@xxxxxxxxx>]

I wish there were a bit more concrete analysis presented, rather than
assertions that oil and
geopolitical forces are at work.
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Sure there are geopolitical forces at work. They are pretty easy to see when you simply look at the historical record. Let's recap the last 13 years of Chechen history:

 

1991 -- Dudayev, a nationalist of the sort that were in vogue in the USSR at that time, becomes president of Chechnya on a separatist agenda.

 

1991-1994 -- exodus of the Chechen intelligentsia and elite from the republic, and most of the non-Chechen population. Chechnya becomes the center of the Russian Mafia, mainly due to its lawless state.

 

1994-1996 -- Dudayev declares independence of Chechnya. Yeltsin reacts by invading the republic. Massive death and carnage as the republic gets the shit bombed out of it. Infrastructure destroyed. International mujaheedin move to Chechnya to help their muslim brothers. Dudayev killed by a missile. As presidential elections approach and, as the already-hated Yeltsin has to worry about defeating his rival Zyuganov, he cancels an extremely unpopular war by having Lebedev broker a peace agreement with military leader Aslan Maskhadov at the Dagestani town of Khasav-Yurt. Chechnya achieves de fact independence as Russia moves out its troops, police and even tax inspectors.

 

1996 -- Maskhadov elected president of Chechnya.

 

1996-1999 --- Chechnya deteriorates at great speed as various clans led by military commanders and their forces left over from the war begin to duke it out with one another. There are pitched battles between Maskhadov's forces and various Islamists, leaving many dead. The influence of the mujaheedin grows exponentially and foreign jihadis flock to Chechnya. Under pressure from them, Maskhadov introduces Shariah law in 1998. Hostage-taking becomes Chechnya's main source of income.

 

1999 --- Shamil Basayev and Khattab (some people say he was a Saudi, others a Jordan -- I think he was a bedouin from around the border with a little bit of Chechen blood in him) attack Dagestan twice with the aim of "liberating" so-called "Little Chechnya," conquering it, transforming it into an Islamic state, and then attacking Ajerbaijan. (Chief Mufti of Chechnya Kadyrov, who had declared jihad on Russia in 1994, begs Maskhadov not to let them go, because it will be war between Muslims and because Russia will respond in force. Maskhadov says he cannot.) Dagestani police and civilians drive back Basayev and Khattab's men. Russia sends forces to the border and demands that Maskhadov hand over the people who had gone to Dagestan. Maskhadov either chooses not to or is too weak to do so. Federal forces enter the republic. Kadyrov changes sides.

 

That's what happened. It's not very complicated, though many of the major events only got reported in the US at the bottom of page 15 of the New York Times.

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