Re: Hubbert's peak

["Devine, James" <jdevine@xxxxxxx>]

it's interesting that (according to MS SLATE on-line magazine) a whole bunch of conservatives, including Gary Becker, are endorsing steep taxes on gasoline in the US, to encourage conservation and gas-saving technical change, while punishing the oil producers. (W. Europe did this years ago.) Good idea, though there should also be a hefty tax on SUVs (on top of making environmental laws as strict with SUVs as with other cars). Of course, the Bushwackers won't allow it... I'm told that if anyone says "carbon tax" within a mile of Dick Cheney, the Secret Service will wrestle the miscreant to the ground and send him or her to Gitmo. After all, he might have a heart attack and who then would be President? 

------------------------
Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine




> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Perelman [mailto:michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2004 1:22 PM
> To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Hubbert's peak
> 
> 
> Jim is obviously correct.  When the energy crisis hit in 73, 
> Dow Chemical realized
> that it had not been shutting down its electric sidewalk in 
> the Summertime.  Frozen
> food containers were open.  Books have been written about 
> corps. saving money by
> saving energy.
> 
> The first savings -- low hanging fruit -- are relatively easy.
> 
> Better city planning would be an obvious example of something 
> that would have high
> payoffs.  Business Week had a stat about how many people 
> commute 50 miles or more one
> way for their job.
> 
> Of course, the industrialization and modernization of poor 
> parts of the world will
> create a serious ramp up in demand.
> 
> 
> 
> On Wed, Jun 02, 2004 at 01:13:23PM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
> > discoveries of new oil aren't the main issue (at least not 
> for me). The fact is that we can economize on the use of oil. 
> Higher oil prices encourage such actions, including technical change.
> >
> > BTW, not all technical change involves greater pollution. 
> For example, my Prius doesn't just get a lot of miles per 
> gallon. (Currently, it's 37 mpg -- it needs a tune-up.)  It 
> also is a "super ultra low emission vehicle."
> >
> > ------------------------
> > Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Michael Perelman [mailto:michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2004 1:07 PM
> > > To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Hubbert's peak
> > >
> > >
> > > Hasn't been a decade since a major oil discovery has occured?
> > >  Authorities have been
> > > increasing their estimates of proven reserves, at least,
> > > until Shell had to reduce
> > > theirs.
> > >
> > > On Wed, Jun 02, 2004 at 11:34:15AM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
> > > > Tom Walker wrote:
> > > > >It may be helpful to non-statisticians to point out that
> > > the bell curve
> > > > is
> > > > not a theory, a fact or a physical law. It is an 
> observed regularity
> > > > that
> > > > occurs often when looking at large numbers of cases....<
> > > >
> > > > I don't think that the validity of the bell curve is that
> > > important to
> > > > the discussion of Hubbert's peak. His basic point -- or
> > > rather, that of
> > > > his followers -- is the same as that of David Ricardo &
> > > Thomas Malthus:
> > > > long-term diminishing returns in the supplies of natural
> > > resources leads
> > > > to increasing misery and/or conflict.
> > > >
> > > > Of course, as with Ricardo & Malths, that ignores such 
> matters as
> > > > technical change (improvements in the efficiency of oil 
> use, etc.)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ------------------------
> > > > Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
> > >
> > > --
> > > Michael Perelman
> > > Economics Department
> > > California State University
> > > Chico, CA 95929
> > >
> > > Tel. 530-898-5321
> > > E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
> > >
> 
> --
> Michael Perelman
> Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
> 
> Tel. 530-898-5321
> E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
>