Re: Hubbert's peak

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Jim is obviously correct.  When the energy crisis hit in 73, Dow Chemical realized
that it had not been shutting down its electric sidewalk in the Summertime.  Frozen
food containers were open.  Books have been written about corps. saving money by
saving energy.

The first savings -- low hanging fruit -- are relatively easy.

Better city planning would be an obvious example of something that would have high
payoffs.  Business Week had a stat about how many people commute 50 miles or more one
way for their job.

Of course, the industrialization and modernization of poor parts of the world will
create a serious ramp up in demand.



On Wed, Jun 02, 2004 at 01:13:23PM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
> discoveries of new oil aren't the main issue (at least not for me). The fact is that we can economize on the use of oil. Higher oil prices encourage such actions, including technical change.
>
> BTW, not all technical change involves greater pollution. For example, my Prius doesn't just get a lot of miles per gallon. (Currently, it's 37 mpg -- it needs a tune-up.)  It also is a "super ultra low emission vehicle."
>
> ------------------------
> Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
>
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Michael Perelman [mailto:michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2004 1:07 PM
> > To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Hubbert's peak
> >
> >
> > Hasn't been a decade since a major oil discovery has occured?
> >  Authorities have been
> > increasing their estimates of proven reserves, at least,
> > until Shell had to reduce
> > theirs.
> >
> > On Wed, Jun 02, 2004 at 11:34:15AM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
> > > Tom Walker wrote:
> > > >It may be helpful to non-statisticians to point out that
> > the bell curve
> > > is
> > > not a theory, a fact or a physical law. It is an observed regularity
> > > that
> > > occurs often when looking at large numbers of cases....<
> > >
> > > I don't think that the validity of the bell curve is that
> > important to
> > > the discussion of Hubbert's peak. His basic point -- or
> > rather, that of
> > > his followers -- is the same as that of David Ricardo &
> > Thomas Malthus:
> > > long-term diminishing returns in the supplies of natural
> > resources leads
> > > to increasing misery and/or conflict.
> > >
> > > Of course, as with Ricardo & Malths, that ignores such matters as
> > > technical change (improvements in the efficiency of oil use, etc.)
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------------
> > > Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
> >
> > --
> > Michael Perelman
> > Economics Department
> > California State University
> > Chico, CA 95929
> >
> > Tel. 530-898-5321
> > E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
> >

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu