Re: Hubbert's peak

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hasn't been a decade since a major oil discovery has occured?  Authorities have been
increasing their estimates of proven reserves, at least, until Shell had to reduce
theirs.

On Wed, Jun 02, 2004 at 11:34:15AM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
> Tom Walker wrote:
> >It may be helpful to non-statisticians to point out that the bell curve
> is
> not a theory, a fact or a physical law. It is an observed regularity
> that
> occurs often when looking at large numbers of cases....<
>
> I don't think that the validity of the bell curve is that important to
> the discussion of Hubbert's peak. His basic point -- or rather, that of
> his followers -- is the same as that of David Ricardo & Thomas Malthus:
> long-term diminishing returns in the supplies of natural resources leads
> to increasing misery and/or conflict.
>
> Of course, as with Ricardo & Malths, that ignores such matters as
> technical change (improvements in the efficiency of oil use, etc.)
>
>
> ------------------------
> Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu