Hubbert's peak

["Devine, James" <jdevine@xxxxxxx>]

Tom Walker wrote:
>It may be helpful to non-statisticians to point out that the bell curve
is
not a theory, a fact or a physical law. It is an observed regularity
that
occurs often when looking at large numbers of cases....<

I don't think that the validity of the bell curve is that important to
the discussion of Hubbert's peak. His basic point -- or rather, that of
his followers -- is the same as that of David Ricardo & Thomas Malthus:
long-term diminishing returns in the supplies of natural resources leads
to increasing misery and/or conflict. 

Of course, as with Ricardo & Malths, that ignores such matters as
technical change (improvements in the efficiency of oil use, etc.) 


------------------------
Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine