Re: Mike Davis on Hubbert's Peak

[Paul Zarembka <zarembka@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Tue, 1 Jun 2004, sartesian wrote:

> Anybody interested in knowing just how "flexible" and "elastic" the
> speculations about "peaks" really are would do well to read the original
> peakist himself, the petroleum Malthus, M. King Hubbert.  Take a look at
> http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/nehring.pdf  and you will read the King
> predicting a peak in the non-communist world's oil production in the early
> to mid 1980s, etc. etc. etc.

> Didn't exactly happen that way, now did it?

Checking out the 1980 report you posted says:

Enough is known about world oil supplies to make a few specific
observations:
 (1) Assuming political stability in the major exporters, non-Communist
 world oil supply is likely to range between 45-60 MBD* in 1985 and 40-60
 MBD in 2000 (compared to 52 MBD in 1979). The sizes of potential
 increases in Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Iraq and of the decrease in the
 United States account for a major portion of the variation in production
 possibilities (10 MBD or approximately 50% of the variation in the year
 2000).

--In fact, 2002 was about 63 MBD, after subtracting out USSR and China
from:
http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.asp?Statfile=_worldoilproduction


 (2) As a group, the non-Communist industrialized countries will
 experience no significant increase in production. In fact, production in
 these countries may decrease by as much as 50% by the year 2000.

2002 OECD was 21.88 (ibid), but I can't immediately find 1980 (except U.S.
at 10+).


 (3) In the short term, U.S. production may decline from its current
 level of 10.2 MBD to a level of 7.2-8.5 MBD in 1985. Production in the
 year 2000 may range between 4-7 MBD. The high estimate for the year 2000
 (7 MBD) depends on both the annual addition of 1 billion barrels to
 proven reserves and the extensive use of enhanced recovery techniques.

8.06 MBD in 2002 for the U.S.


 (4) OPEC production during the next 20 years will not differ
 significantly from its current level of 31 MBD. Any increases in the
 production rate will be strongly dependent upon Arab OPEC producers.
 Except for Iran, only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates have
 the reserves and Iraq the estimated potential to increase production
 rates. Substantial dependence on Arab OPEC (the Persian Gulf region) is
 likely to continue with its obvious implications for foreign policy.

28.57 in 2002 (ibid., while your report p. 45, predicted 27-37 for 2000)


In sum, I don't understand the objection to this report of 1980.

A new book is Dale Allen Pfeiffer's book "The End of the Age of Oil" and a
major proponent of peak oil is http://www.fromthewilderness.com/ .

Paul