FT on Chavez

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Michael L.,

This is particularly for you.

Best,
Sabri

++++++++++++

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c
=StoryFT&cid=1084907876511&p=1012571727285

US must act to curb Chávez's excesses 
By Joseph Nunez 
Published: May 27 2004 21:26 | Last Updated: May 27 2004 21:26 
 
Venezuela is proof that free elections do not guarantee political legitimacy
or responsible governance. Hugo Chávez, its president, though democratically
elected, does not act in a democratic manner. This is a big problem for the
Organisation of American States, the western hemisphere's 34-member
diplomatic forum, which has made much of its democratic charter, signed in
2001.

Mr Chávez has strong support from the poor and the military, now purged of
opponents. But he has alienated many others because he operates as an
elected dictator. He has fomented class warfare, politicised the country's
institutions, ruined the economy, violated human rights and sought to build
ties with rogue states, while accusing traditional allies of plotting
against him. Now he is defying popular support for a recall referendum - a
nationwide vote on his continuation in office - that is allowed for in his
own rewritten constitution.

On Wednesday, Roger Noriega, US assistant secretary of state, warned that Mr
Chávez's actions could lead to US pressure to have Venezuela suspended from
the OAS.

The referendum provision was invoked after the opposition and government
agreed in May 2003 to resolve a serious political crisis that shut down the
economy and provoked bloody confrontations in the streets. The opposition
collected 3.4m signatures - well above the 2.4m required. But Mr Chávez
asserts that many of the signatures are fraudulent.

The National Election Council - hardly an independent body - has questioned
the validity of more than 1m signatures. This weekend, opposition supporters
will attempt to authenticate enough to secure a referendum.

No one knows what Mr Chávez will do next, but, if the past is any guide, it
is unlikely to be good for democracy. At present it looks as if he will
continue to drag things out and delay a referendum through intimidation and
demands for "signature verification".

Something must be done to restore democratic governance in Venezuela, and
the OAS, with its democratic charter, is in the best position to handle
this. A multilateral move strongly to encourage Mr Chávez to stop
interfering with the judicial and legislative branches of government is
needed.

People familiar with the OAS are not very hopeful that it can positively
influence the future of democracy in Venezuela. It tends to appease those
Latin American leaders who wrap themselves in the cloak of sovereignty and
non-intervention. In effect, it seems to work on the basis of: "Stay out of
my country's problems and I will stay out of your country's problems."

Yet taking no action would further erode the legitimacy of the OAS and its
democratic charter. It might also force the Venezuelan people to rise up -
again - against Mr Chávez, or even provoke the US to step in.

What seems certain is that change will take place - through internal or
external means. If the OAS does stand up to Mr Chávez, it will have several
effects. First, it will cause protests in a number of countries that are not
great fans of democracy, capitalism and the US - a small price for the OAS
to pay. Second, it will strengthen the legitimacy of the OAS as a true
guardian of democracy. Third, it will dissuade the Venezuelan people and the
US from taking strong action to ensure that democratic principles are
respected.

The OAS can pull this off if it tries. To be successful, key countries such
as Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and the US must come
together to support an effective OAS role in Venezuela. Mr Noriega's words
this week are a hopeful sign. But ultimately these countries can only come
together if César Gaviria, secretary-general of the OAS, is willing to
demonstrate some leadership.

It is my sincere hope that Mr Chávez will permit the democratic process to
work in Venezuela, a country that is heading for membership of the failed
state club. But his recent statements in the press do not bode well. Even if
a recall referendum is held, there is no guarantee that a change of regime
will occur, particularly since the opposition cannot seem to translate the
anti-Chávez majority into support for one candidate or party.

There are no easy answers for Venezuela, but leadership that is willing to
build legitimacy by bringing all classes together, to provide opportunity
and to respect human rights is the preferred solution. None of this is
likely unless the OAS is willing to do the right thing in dealing with Mr
Chávez.

Col Joseph Nuñez is a professor in the Department of National Security &
Strategy at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own.