PEN-L message, Re: End of oil

Back in 1991, heightened insecurity in the Arab region also resulted in short lived high oil prices. Pinning a projection on any price, save the oil price movement, is audacious at best. There are definite supply constraints, but these remain for the time being at least remotely related to the depleting nature of the resource and the possibility that hitting peak production lies in store. Many forecasts situate global oil production at or about peak circa 2006-2008. What goes unmentioned however is that these predictions are based on the present fine and cheaply extracted quality of oil and not lower quality oils as those in tar sands for instance? Hence, with that natural bottleneck discounted, it is the present supply policy conditions, including the politics of instability in oil producing regions and not the exhaustive nature of oil that are to blame. Presently, there is enough slack in capacity, at least before reaching refineries, to offset any fear of serious shortages. The power brokers behind prices are already at work cutting corners to lessen the cartel-oil companies oligarchic power and increase supply.

Louis Proyect <lnp3@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

'End of Oil' Author Paul Roberts

May 6, 2004

The demand for oil increases each year, but the supply is not
inexhaustible. Experts predict that within 30 years our oil energy
sources will be depleted. In his book, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a
Perilous New World, Roberts looks at the implications for the world in
terms of the economy, politics and the environment, and what
alternatives exist for oil. Roberts writes about the energy industry for
Harper's magazine and for other national publications.

Audio/interview with Roberts is at:
http://www.npr.org/features/feature.php?wfId=1874931

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