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Some empirical observations of Arab trade with china

This is part of a bigger work on trade that is not yet available so sorry for the space I used.

Sources UNCTAD Com-trade and IMF direction of trade database. Between 1988-2000: (that is because prior to 1988 trade stats were not consolidated)

 

Structure of Arab world trade with China by major commodity grouping 1988-2000

 

A priori, one presumes that China is exporting manufactured goods and importing petroleum products. Indeed, the tables below bear witness to that intuition and to the growth in the shares of these items. Furthermore, it is these very items that appear to be fuelling this trade relationship.

Table 1: Shares of major commodity groupings from total imports and exports.

Shares of major commodity groupings of Arab world exports to China

 

AgrRaw

Chemical

Food

Fuels

Machinery

Manuf

PetrlPrd

1988

n/a

66,21%

n/a

17,35%

n/a

n/a

10,30%

1989

n/a

63,51%

n/a

22,69%

n/a

n/a

21,29%

1990

n/a

58,32%

n/a

22,98%

n/a

n/a

20,13%

1991

n/a

42,89%

n/a

48,35%

n/a

n/a

47,49%

1992

n/a

31,58%

n/a

64,20%

n/a

n/a

63,89%

1993

n/a

15,58%

n/a

79,11%

n/a

n/a

77,00%

1994

n/a

23,50%

n/a

65,77%

n/a

n/a

56,01%

1995

n/a

30,45%

n/a

61,23%

n/a

n/a

48,18%

1996

n/a

18,33%

n/a

76,21%

n/a

n/a

54,15%

1997

n/a

14,50%

n/a

82,47%

n/a

n/a

65,06%

1998

n/a

18,33%

n/a

78,67%

n/a

n/a

61,03%

1999

n/a

17,88%

n/a

78,41%

n/a

n/a

59,21%

2000

n/a

7,92%

n/a

89,27%

n/a

n/a

80,68%

Shares of major commodity groupings of Arab world imports from China

 

AgrRaw

Chemical

Food

Fuels

Machinery

Manuf

PetrlPrd

1988

n/a

14,01%

18,96%

n/a

8,99%

79,84%

n/a

1989

n/a

10,88%

20,78%

n/a

8,99%

78,39%

n/a

1990

n/a

4,71%

25,67%

n/a

11,03%

73,49%

n/a

1991

n/a

4,53%

22,27%

n/a

9,47%

76,96%

n/a

1992

n/a

3,82%

22,13%

n/a

10,23%

75,57%

n/a

1993

n/a

4,45%

13,96%

n/a

14,52%

83,60%

n/a

1994

n/a

3,96%

11,05%

n/a

13,84%

87,39%

n/a

1995

n/a

4,77%

8,52%

n/a

16,13%

90,37%

n/a

1996

n/a

4,83%

9,95%

n/a

16,25%

88,84%

n/a

1997

n/a

4,86%

7,99%

n/a

16,38%

90,01%

n/a

1998

n/a

5,05%

6,94%

n/a

17,56%

91,73%

n/a

1999

n/a

4,98%

7,48%

n/a

21,25%

90,78%

n/a

2000

n/a

4,33%

6,10%

n/a

19,69%

90,14%

n/a

Note that these data are from Com-trade as reported by China on its trade activity with the Arab world. Also note that the term n/a is used where the share is extremely small and that the shares need not add up to 100 % since these groupings overlap, e.g. Fuels and petrol or machinery and manufacturing. Thus, as it is shown above the major export items are fuels or petroleum products and the major import items are machinery and manufactured goods. But, this may beg the question: do the fuel exporters represent china?s major importers or is there an uneven landscape? Before heading towards a country by country analysis in order to disclose the particularities of this trade relationship, here are the growth rates by major items.

 

Table 2: Average growth rates (1988 2000) of major export and import items

Arab world

AgrRaw

Chemical

Food

Fuels

Machinery

Manuf

PetrlPrd

exports

n/a

4,57%

n/a

32,05%

n/a

5,01%

31,72%

Arab world

AgrRaw

Chemical

Food

Fuels

Machinery

Manuf

PetrlPrd

 imports

n/a

8,98%

2,19%

n/a

21,88%

16,21%

n/a

Kindly note that items with very small shares are not entered in this analysis.

 

Table 2 demonstrates that export items such as fuels and petroleum products grew at astonishingly high rates, while manufacturing and machinery represented the highest growing import items. Having identified the obvious sources of growth of trade with China, we then ask which Arab countries represent China?s major trading partners.

 

Arab countries trade with China

 

 

 

Table 3: Growth rates of imports and exports of Arab countries with China 1988-2000 (IMF data)

 

growth rates

CName

Imports

Exports

x>i

 

Total

12,44%

19,95%

1

 

Algeria

3,90%[1][1]

15,35%

1

 

Bahrain

9,38%

54,96%

1

 

Comoros

7,69%

n/a

0

 

Egypt

20,47%

23,96%

1

 

Iraq

15,22%

16,44%

1

 

Jordan

14,12%

-1,33%

0

 

Kuwait

7,79%

21,75%

1

 

Lebanon

19,95%

4,13%

0

 

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

3,87%

-0,28%

0

 

Morocco

9,66%

4,17%

0

 

Oman

19,97%

63,79%

1

 

Qatar

7,68%

7,57%

0

 

Saudi Arabia

8,73%

25,11%

1

 

Somalia

-31,72%

-27,06%

N/a

 

Sudan[2][2]

10,23%

16,06%

1

 

Syrian Arab Republic

15,78%

-12,76%

0

 

Tunisia

10,26%

3,40%

0

 

United Arab Emirates

16,08%

11,42%

0

 

Yemen

4,16%

39,36%

1

 

Nine countries exhibit a higher growth rate in export than imports (marked by the digit 1). Note that with the exception of Egypt, these countries are major oil producers. 

 

 

Table 4: share of imports of selected Arab countries as a percentage of total Arab imports from China ranked in descending order (ranked by last year -2000)

35,77%

United Arab Emirates

19,37%

Saudi Arabia

12,34%

Egypt

5,81%

Morocco

4,77%

Kuwait

3,82%

Algeria

3,60%

Jordan

3,35%

Lebanon

3,03%

Sudan

2,84%

Yemen

2,80%

Syrian Arab Republic

1,68%

Tunisia

1,64%

Iraq

1,51%

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

1,10%

Oman

0,77%

Bahrain

0,54%

Qatar

0,01%

Somalia

0,01%

Comoros

 

Table 5: share of exports of selected Arab countries as a percentage of total Arab exports to China ranked in descending order (ranked by last year-2000)

 

33,78%

Oman

24,99%

Saudi Arabia

14,44%

Yemen

5,27%

United Arab Emirates

4,74%

Sudan

4,61%

Iraq

3,66%

Qatar

1,57%

Kuwait

1,47%

Morocco

1,31%

Algeria

1,07%

Egypt

0,91%

Jordan

0,89%

Bahrain

0,88%

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

0,39%

Tunisia

0,01%

Syrian Arab Republic

0,00%

Somalia

0,00%

Lebanon

0,00%

Comoros

 

Note that three out of the top five exporters are major oil producers.

 

 

 

 

 

Table 6: Ranking of countries by share of imports from China as a percentage of world imports(ranked by last year-2000)

 

 

12,28%

Sudan

6,26%

Yemen

5,79%

Iraq

5,69%

United Arab Emirates

5,08%

Jordan

3,58%

Egypt

3,43%

Syrian Arab Republic

3,40%

Lebanon

3,25%

Kuwait

3,19%

Saudi Arabia

2,78%

Morocco

2,14%

Algeria

1,93%

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

1,32%

Comoros

1,29%

Bahrain

1,26%

Oman

1,10%

Tunisia

1,01%

Qatar

0,24%

Somalia

 

Note that no direct relationship appears to be present between population size, structure of economy and the share of imports, i.e. UAE ranks higher than Egypt- Sudan and Yemen are at a higher rank than that of Saudi Arabia. China figures highly in the trade portfolio of Sudan and Yemen.

 

 

Table 7: Ranking of countries by share of exports to China as a  percentage of world exports (ranked by last year-2000)

 

35,63%

Yemen

19,24%

Sudan

17,85%

Oman

3,00%

Jordan

1,77%

Qatar

1,73%

Iraq

1,69%

Saudi Arabia

0,92%

Egypt

0,83%

Morocco

0,64%

United Arab Emirates

0,64%

Kuwait

0,52%

Bahrain

0,33%

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

0,30%

Algeria

0,29%

Tunisia

0,04%

Somalia

0,01%

Syrian Arab Republic

0,00%

Lebanon

0,00%

Comoros

 

Note that in their trade portfolio, Yemen and Sudan (poorest countries) and new oil exporters, exhibit the highest import and export shares, i.e. trade with China is significant for both entities. Also here it is oil driven.

 

 

Table 8: Ranking of countries by ratio of imports to exports  vis-à-vis China (ranked by last year-2000)

 

0,042121

Oman

0,190923

Qatar

0,254176

Yemen

0,458731

Iraq

0,824097

Sudan

1,000444

Saudi Arabia

1,117269

Bahrain

1,800999

Kuwait

2,195745

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

3,772954

Algeria

5,081897

Jordan

5,084626

Morocco

5,624478

Tunisia

8,751902

United Arab Emirates

14,83639

Egypt

15,28187

Somalia

n/a

Syrian Arab Republic

n/a

Comoros

n/a

Lebanon

Note that Oman, Qatar, Yemen, Iraq and Sudan display a trade surplus with China in the year 2000. Recall that Sudan and Yemen also exhibit the highest shares of imports/exports with China as a percentage of their world trade.

 

Table 9: trends in trade account with China, 1988-2000. (Countries marked by ?widening? exhibit a widening gap between initial year 1988 and final year 2000 and countries marked by ?closing? exhibit a closing gap between initial year 1988 and final year 2000).

 

 

closing

Algeria

closing

Egypt

closing

Iraq

closing

Kuwait

closing

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

closing

Oman

closing

Qatar

closing

Saudi Arabia

closing

Sudan

closing

Yemen

widening

Jordan

widening

Morocco

widening

Somalia

widening

Syrian Arab Republic

widening

Tunisia

widening

United Arab Emirates

n/a

Bahrain

n/a

Comoros

n/a

Lebanon[3][3]

 

 

 

Table 10: trends in trade account with China, 1988-2000- Sign of the slope of the import to export ratio.

Algeria

negative

Bahrain

n/a

Comoros

n/a

Egypt

negative

Iraq

negative

Jordan

positive

Kuwait

negative

Lebanon

n/a

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya[4][4]

Zero slope

Morocco

positive

Oman

negative

Qatar

Zero slope

Saudi Arabia

negative

Somalia

n/a

Sudan

negative

Syrian Arab Republic

positive

Tunisia

positive

United Arab Emirates

positive

Yemen

negative

 

On the whole, because of higher Chinese oil imports, the trade deficit with China is closing for the majority of Arab countries. With the exception of the UAE, countries with a widening import/export gap are namely non-oil producing countries. These trends may prove problematic as a result of China?s accession to the WTO.  Already, China?s strong trade performance has been associated with an increased share of manufactures in exports, which now account for 90 percent of the total. China has also been involved in assembly of technology intensive products, with exports of telecommunication equipment and automatic data processing products adding to a quarter of its total exports. Its share in world exports exceeds 20 percent in a number of products including travel goods, toys and clothing. Its imports are strongly biased towards raw material, intermediate and capital goods, and its share of consumer imports is relatively small. China?s export markets are broadly based; it has strong and growing links with the Arab world. Perhaps the most important issue is how China?s accession could influence the trends already witnessed above?

 


 


[1][1] A break in the series exists at year 1992, hence, exceptionally the growth rate is calculated from 1992 to 2000.

[2][2]  Sudan has been corrected for outliers.

[3][3] Lebanon?s gap is far too great while Comoros and Bahrain display very small shares cum figures.

[4][4] The slope in this case is just above zero.

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