Re: U.S.-Led Coalition Shuts Down Iraq Paper (Milan Rai on UN occupation of Iraq)

["Devine, James" <jdevine@xxxxxxx>]

In response to Yoshie, Bill Lear wrote:
> >Let me get this right: since only 1,000 out of 24 million came out for
> >a very vocal demonstration, that shows how cowed they are; therefore,
> >10,000 in the U.S., keeping proportions constant, shows the same
> >thing?

Saith Doug ironically, 
> Bill, you're trying to reason, which is often a dead end. Even though
> half of Baghdadis polled expressed dislike of Bush and Blair and
> thought the U.S. was after their oil, and almost a fifth expressed
> support for attacks on U.S. forces, their expression of worry about
> what might happen (e.g. rampant violence and civil war) should
> foreign forces pull out with no replacements can't be believed,
> because it's inconvenient. Therefore the poll has to be discredited.
> QED. There's no more to discuss. It's been decided.

I don't think Doug's irony is needed here. It seems to me that Doug's view (that Yoshie and others should read the poll more carefully) is totally consistent with Yoshie's skepticism about the validity of the poll. (I can understand it if Michael Perelman is tired of this discussion.) 

In effect, Yoshie is saying that without intimidation by the Occupying Authority (e.g., use of the resistance forces' attacks as a way to cow the people)  maybe 75% of Baghdadis would have expressed dislike for B&B. Similarly, without Bremer _et al_'s manipulation of the situation (and use of Saddam-era oppressive laws) perhaps 30 or even 50% percent would have expressed support for attacks on US forces. Of course, we don't know -- can't know -- for sure what would happen in this hypothetical situation.  

Similarly, if Iraq were being ruled in a more democratic way, it's possible that 100,000 of 24 million would have demonstrated. The variable to consider is not just the size of the population but also the general degree of fear.

In the current situation, I understand that a lot of people are afraid to participate in civic life (partly due to hangovers from the Saddam period). With more public participation -- i.e., with less isolation and fragmentation -- people would likely feel more able to develop and express anti-US sentiments.  

As for the fear of what might happen if US forces pulled out, I think there's a very good reason to trust the poll results. People are almost always afraid of what will happen if the state (in this case, the US armed forces) goes away. The current situation in Iraq is perfect for sparking Hobbesian nightmares, which encourages support for the current Leviathan, just as it encouraged non-coerced support for Saddam. (This, of course, one of the reasons why anti-statism or anarchism is unpopular -- absent a well-organized mass movement that looks like it can replace the state.)

Jim Devine