Re: Milan Rai on UN occupation of Iraq

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:

> Doug and Joel ought to remember that Iraq is *under foreign military
> occupation conducting counterinsurgency warfare* with censorship,
> checkpoints, house raids, arbitrary arrest and detention, no due
> process, etc. -- i.e. Iraqis do not have freedom of speech.

Since you clearly don't want to read the actual poll, let me supply
some highlights for you. These results don't sound like they're
coming from people too terrified to speak their minds.

Doug

----

Only one in four Baghdad residents (26%) told Gallup they would
prefer coalition forces to "leave immediately -- say, in the next few
months." Seven in 10 (72%) said U.S. and British troops should stay
in Iraq for "a longer period of time."

Furthermore, a substantial 85% of Baghdad's residents said they agree
with the assertion that "some people believe if the U.S. were to pull
out its troops any time soon, Iraq will fall into anarchy." Just 11%
said they disagree with this assessment.

While opinions differ as to which specific groups are behind attacks
on U.S. troops and what their motives are, a majority of Baghdad's
residents -- 64% -- view them as either somewhat (22%) or completely
(42%) unjustifiable.

That said, a significant minority of Baghdad's residents are
unwilling to condemn attacks against U.S. troops, at least under
certain circumstances. Seventeen percent said that the current
attacks on U.S. forces are sometimes justified, and sometimes not
justified. Of greater concern is the fact that nearly one in five
Baghdadis (19%) view the ongoing attacks as either somewhat (11%) or
completely (8%) justifiable.

---

Although 62% of Baghdad residents who participated in Gallup's
landmark poll of that city said ousting Saddam Hussein was worth any
personal hardships they have endured since the invasion, most are
deeply skeptical of the initial rationale the coalition has given for
its action.

The 2003 Gallup Poll of Baghdad asked respondents to describe, in
their own words, why they think the United States and Great Britain
invaded Iraq. Just 4% of Baghdad's residents said they believe it was
done to eliminate weapons of mass destruction -- the principal
justification given at the time. Slightly more than 4 in 10 (43%)
said the invasion's principal objective was Iraq's oil reserves,
while nearly as many (37%) see the invasion as motivated primarily by
a desire to topple Hussein's regime.

In addition to oil, others mentioned the country's oil-derived wealth
(11%) and its non-petroleum mineral deposits (7%) as motives for the
coalition's military action. Some Baghdadis also cited strategic
considerations: 14% said the action was intended to colonize and
occupy a portion of the Middle East, and 6% said the motivation was a
desire to change the "map" of the Middle East in a way more attuned
to U.S. and Israeli interests. Just 5% of Baghdadis said the
invasion's principal motivation was to assist the Iraqi people, while
15% said the coalition invaded to benefit the people of the United
States. Only 1% believe that a desire to establish democracy was the
main reason for last spring's assault.

Approximately half (52%) of the Baghdadis interviewed said they agree
with the assertion that "the U.S. is very serious about establishing
a democratic system in Iraq," while roughly a third (36%) said they
disagree with this characterization of America's intent and
commitment.

However, while many appear to see the U.S. commitment to democracy as
"very serious," there is also concern about whether the establishment
of a democratic system will provide adequate insulation from U.S.
pressure and influence. Only about a third (35%) of Baghdad residents
agree that "the U.S. will allow Iraqis to fashion their own political
future as they see fit without direct U.S. influence," while 51%
disagree with this prediction.

---

Although more than a decade of severe economic sanctions were imposed
under its auspices, Baghdad residents are considerably more likely to
view the United Nations favorably (50%) than unfavorably (20%). In
fact, of the seven U.N. member states rated, only Japan (60%), France
(55%), and Germany (53%) -- the latter two both outspoken opponents
of the coalition invasion -- are more likely than the United Nations
to be viewed favorably.

Views of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan are more mixed, with 39%
of Baghdadis expressing a favorable opinion and 28% an unfavorable
one. In terms of net favorability (+13%), Annan is well ahead of both
British Prime Minister Tony Blair (-27%) and President George Bush
(-21%), but behind French President Jacques Chirac (+22%) and
Coalition Provisional Authority chief administrator Paul Bremer
(+24%).

---

Gallup's survey sought Baghdad residents' reactions to the
possibility of internationalizing the security effort -- not via
troop commitments from specific nations (which would presumably
remain under coalition command), but through the formation and
introduction of "an international peacekeeping police force."

Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the capital city's adults favor the idea
of installing an international peacekeeping force in Iraq, while just
32% are opposed to this suggestion. Thus, it appears that any
misgivings over the presence of foreigners are tempered, at least in
the near term, by concern for establishing security and maintaining
civil order. For the near future, residents of Baghdad appear to want
more, not less, outside assistance.

---

The fact that the United States and Britain led the military action
that toppled the former regime does not translate into favorable
sentiment for these nations -- indeed France, which resolutely
opposed a second Security Council resolution sanctioning military
action, is held in significantly higher regard by those in Iraq's
capital city. An outright majority (55%) holds a mostly (38%) or very
(17%) favorable view of France, while just 12% say their appraisal of
France is mostly (7%) or very (5%) unfavorable.

Appraisals of both the United States and Britain, however, are more
likely to be negative than positive. Nearly half of Baghdadis (44%)
have a negative view of the United States (21% somewhat not
favorable, 23% not favorable), and an even higher percentage (48%)
views Britain negatively (23% somewhat not favorable, 25% not
favorable at all). Only about one in four Baghdadis have a
predominantly positive view of the two leading coalition partners;
29% for the United States (20% mostly favorable, 9% very favorable),
and 24% for Britain (16%, 8%), which ruled Iraq as a mandate until
the country was granted independence in 1932.