Re: futures market military intelligence

["Devine, James" <jdevine@xxxxxxx>]

a discussion on US National Public Radio I heard today indicates one reason why this program won't fly: terrorists can use the market to bet that a terrorist attack will occur and then win big by making it happen. 

------------------------
Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine




> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Perelman [mailto:michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:15 PM
> To: PEN-L@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [PEN-L] futures market military intelligence
> 
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html
> Both Pacifica News and the New York Times have stories about using the
> futures market to predict terrorist activities.  I find the story
> fascinating in one respect.  Futures markets should predict future
> activities given certain assumptions, including that the 
> participants have
> adequate access to information.
> 
> If the futures market participants have good enough information, then
> United States could just dismantle its intelligence agencies 
> and rely on
> the futures market.  It also suggests that the typical 
> American -- or at
> least herds of typical Americans -- have information 
> virtually equivalent
> to the government.  Quite an admission on the part of the Pentagon.
> 
>  --
>  Michael Perelman Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
> 
> Tel. 530-898-5321
> E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>