Re: futures market military intelligence

[Kenneth Campbell <kkc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Traditional intelligence services remain rather poor at what they do --
at least relative to the mythology Hollywood and the conspiracy buffs
have created around them. It's not uncommon for them to miss things that
seemed obvious to non-professionals. (Iran in 1979 is an obvious and
recent one; Iraq right now is another.)

The concept of using the Internet -- viz., networking bodies of
collective knowledge -- as a primary intelligence source has been
bandied about quite a bit in intelligence circles. I first saw a serious
attempt at promoting it back in 1992-3, with Open Source Solutions
(Robert Steele, if I remember his name, I interviewed him a couple
times).

A futures market is like that early concept.

Like Michael, I find this venture fascinating in that regards -- that
the Pentagon is willing to fund such a thing.

I doubt the intelligence community itself is overly thrilled with the
idea, as it does to them what has been done to other "industries" --
removes the layer of administrative and collective functions from the
process (job loss).

But this won't fly, not in _this_ open a manner. It is sets a precedent
for non-Yanqui countries/corporations to do the same.

That would never stand because American politicians would cringe at
being listed as "assassination odds." (It's sort of similar, I suppose,
as to why the U.S. shuns all concept of international courts -- because
they know their imperial policies would make them regularly on the Most
Wanted List.) The very prospect of talking in non-emotional,
business-profit manner (American-style business ethics) about those
things -- Is Powell a better target than Cheney? What's the pay-off?
What's Jimmy The Greek say in Vegas? -- would probably increase the
interest of many disgruntled parties out there to "help the market
along."

Of course, the mob would probably finally get some belated cash pay-off
for JFK.

Ken.

--
>From a distance these things, these Movements take on a charm
that they do not have close up -- I assure you.
          -- Marcel Duchamp, 1921


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Michael wrote:

>http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html
>Both Pacifica News and the New York Times have stories about using the
>futures market to predict terrorist activities.  I find the story
>fascinating in one respect.  Futures markets should predict future
>activities given certain assumptions, including that the
>participants have
>adequate access to information.
>
>If the futures market participants have good enough information, then
>United States could just dismantle its intelligence agencies
>and rely on
>the futures market.  It also suggests that the typical
>American -- or at
>least herds of typical Americans -- have information virtually
>equivalent
>to the government.  Quite an admission on the part of the Pentagon.