futures market military intelligence

[Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html
Both Pacifica News and the New York Times have stories about using the
futures market to predict terrorist activities.  I find the story
fascinating in one respect.  Futures markets should predict future
activities given certain assumptions, including that the participants have
adequate access to information.

If the futures market participants have good enough information, then
United States could just dismantle its intelligence agencies and rely on
the futures market.  It also suggests that the typical American -- or at
least herds of typical Americans -- have information virtually equivalent
to the government.  Quite an admission on the part of the Pentagon.

 --
 Michael Perelman Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx