[PEN-L:36281] Re: The Stalingrad thesis.

[Paul_A <paul_a@xxxxxxx>]

> Jim Devine wrote:
> right. I've been telling people that I fully expect the US
> to win the war (especially since Honor is At Stake and "we"
> wouldn't want a repeat of Somalia) but then lose the occupation. I think
> I've been right: the US will be trying to run a Gaza Strip the size of
> California.  

Personally, I am cautious on this point - one has to be
realistic.  To me it IS clear that this will be a massive setback to
the region overall, moving it further away from finding a more equitable
development path (and in most cases anything that could be called any
kind of development path).  In the Mid-East overall there will be
lots more of the "instability" you mean.  [BTW, I continue
to be shocked at how little is written about the rise of fundamentalism
as national development was blocked and neo-liberalism was introduced in
the Mid-East.  Radical Fundamentalism is treated as if it were the
Islamic Billy Graham and has been around for hundreds of years, rather
than the Islamic Timothy McVeigh - a very contemporary reaction to bitter
angers rooted in some specific economic failures.]

But when it comes to Iraq itself, I honestly could see things go either
way.  Maybe the U.S. occupation will end in resistance - especially
if the US blunders (never to be ruled out).  Still, there is a
reason the US picked  this particular fight - you would have to be a
particularly cruel and insensitive occupier not to have a chance to
"pull it off".  The U.S. will be able to draw on vast
Iraqi resources (even after part is taken away) and a sophisticated base
to draw on.  People are also exhausted after two decades of death,
sacrifice and isolation.  The left is decimated, the activists of
the nationalist right were mostly killed through Bathist purges starting
24 years ago; politics have often been discredited and repressed. There
will be an enormous but unspecific sense of nationalism but since Saadam
Hussein took power he has gone to great lengths to de-politicize society
and reinforce clan (not national) loyalties.  How far can the Shia
fundamentalism take a rebellion (unless Iran decides to take a big
gamble), especially since most Iraqis are proud of their secular
'modernism'.   

Obviously people will put up this current fight (as did the German
people).  But afterwards...I wouldn't want to predict.