[PEN-L:36258] Reuters report invasion delay

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

This morning the BBC confirms the probability of a Reuters report that the
advance on Baghdad is to be held up for 6-8 days. BBC reporter at HQ in
Qatar says that is very probable, to bring up supplies: the US Third
Division nerar Karbala is about where it should be but the progress of the
marines has been "rather more laborious"  near Nasiriya. However there are
now airfields inside Iraq helping with the logistics. [perhaps in the
silent western areas?? Meanwhile there is another report of 12 more US
troops missing near Nasiriya.]

The BBC interviewed Michael McGinty, defence analyst from the ultra
respectable Royal United Services Institute and former Royal Navy officer.
Studiously impartial and reasonable in tone, his report was interesting
from the point of view of probable dominant official UK perspectives on the
war.  About the explosion causing over 50 deaths in Baghdad he pointed out
that over 1000 missiles have been fired. [only?] The worst error rate  for
Tomahawk missiles going astray was 7%. This was almost certainly a cruise
missile, so he said, the error rate is obviously better than that. He did
not project that into a civilian casualty figure per month. [The BBC showed
footage of the casualties and pointed out that they had been broadcast all
round the Arab world.] Although an Iraqi missile was technically a possible
cause there is no evidence of the Iraqi's firing anti-aircraft missiles
during the air-raids. About effect on morale in Baghdad he said that life
has to go on, including even football games and there is perhaps some sort
of blitz spirit in the city "in the way we had in 1940" [thereby subtly
identifying with the Iraqis]

Concerning the delay in the ground attack on Baghdad, McGinty said this
sort of delay is very common. Amateurs talk of strategy; professionals talk
of logistics. True that the guerilla attacks have been more than
anticipated.  All these things are what Clausewitz called 'friction'.  War
is a political activity that uses military means.

The possibilities of an Iraqi uprising are very unlikely before Saddam
goes. With past failures to support Iraqi uprisings the anti-Saddam forces
will not risk this. He referred to Tony Blair's image last night of there
being a "membrane" over Iraq preventing the allies getting through to the
Iraqi people, a membrane consisting of the Republican Guard and the
fedayeen, as "incredibly naive". This was a throw away remark not a
polemical attack on the prime minister, whom he conceded is an
international politician,  but in a way all the more damning for that as a
serious analysis. McGinty argued that the issues holding Iraqi society
together involve a much more complex interplay of factors.

This was the amiable informed conversational voice of someone who could
discuss with the highest levels of British military thinking!

Chris Burford
London