[PEN-L:36145] Recent purported Russian Intelligence Reports

["k hanly" <khanly@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The link is at :

http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/news078.htm

but it doesnt always work. Probably it is high traffic or maybe hackers are
trying to down it as well. There is also
a Russian language version. I still cant access Al Jezeera. CBC often relays
reports from the Arabic TV channel and uses pictures as well.

If  you have access to CBC TV there is a documentary by an  Afghan-Canadian
woman, Return to Kandahar. I believe the time is 9 PM Central Standard Time.

Cheers, Ken Hanly

March 25, 2003, 1230hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - As of morning March 25 the
situation on Iraqi fronts remains quiet. Both sides are actively preparing
for future engagements. Exhausted in combat US 3rd Motorized Infantry
Division is now being reinforced with fresh units from Kuwait (presumably
with up to 1 Marine brigade and 1 tank brigade from the 1st Armored Division
(all coming from the coalition command reserves) and elements of the British
7th Tank Brigade from the area of Umm Qasr. The troops have a stringent
requirement to regroup and, after conducting additional reconnaissance, to
capture An-Nasiriya within two days.

The Iraqis have reinforced the An-Nasiriya garrison with several artillery
battalions and a large number of anti-tank weapons. Additionally, the Iraqis
are actively deploying landmines along the approaches to their positions.

However, currently all combat has nearly ceased due to a sand storm raging
over the region. Weather forecasts anticipate the storm's end by noon of
March 26. According to intercepted radio communications the coalition
advance will be tied to the end of the sand storm and is planned to take
place during the night of March 26-27. The coalition command believes that a
night attack will allow the its forces to achieve the element of surprise
and to use its advantage in specialized night fighting equipment.

There have been no reports of any losses resulting from direct combat in the
past 10 hours. However, there is information about two coalition combat
vehicles destroyed by landmines. Three US soldiers were wounded in one of
these incidents.

Positional warfare continues near Basra. The coalition forces in this area
are clearly insufficient to continue the attack and the main emphasis is
being placed on artillery and aviation. The city is under constant
bombardment but so far this had little impact on the combat readiness of the
Iraqi units. Thus, last night an Iraqi battalion reinforced with tanks swung
around the coalition positions in the area of Basra airport and attacked the
coalition forces in the flanks. As the result of this attack the US forces
have been thrown back 1.5-2 kilometers leaving the airport and the nearby
structures in the hands of the Iraqis. Two APCs and one tank were destroyed
in this encounter. According to radio intelligence at least two US soldiers
were killed and no less than six US soldiers were wounded.

The coalition forces are still unable to completely capture the small town
of Umm Qasr. By the end of yesterday coalition units were controlling only
the strategic roads going through the town, but fierce fighting continued in
the residential districts. At least two British servicemen were killed by
sniper fire in Umm Qasr during the past 24 hours.

The coalition command is extremely concerned with growing resistance
movement in the rear of the advancing forces. During a meeting at the
coalition command headquarters it was reported that up to 20 Iraqi
reconnaissance units are active behind the coalition rear. The Iraqis attack
lightly armed supply units; they deploy landmines and conduct
reconnaissance. Additionally, captured villages have active armed resistance
that is conducting reconnaissance in the interests of the Iraqi command and
is organizing attacks against coalition troops. During the past 24 hours
more than 30 coalition wheeled and armored vehicles have been lost to such
attacks. Some 7 coalition servicemen have disappeared, 3 soldiers died and
10 were wounded.

The coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks ordered his forces to clear
coalition rears from Iraqi diversionary units and partisans in the shortest
possible time. The British side will be responsible for fulfilling these
orders. A unit from the 22nd SAS regiment supported by the US 1st, 5th and
10th Special Operations Groups will carry out this operation. Each of these
groups has up to 12 units numbering 12-15 troops each. All of these units
have some Asian or Arabic Americans. The groups also have guides and
translators from among local Iraqi collaborators, who went through rapid
training at specialized centers in the Czech Republic and the UK.

The sand storms turned out to be the main enemy of the American military
equipment. Just the 3rd Motorized Infantry Division had more than 100
disabled vehicles disabled. The repair crews are working around the clock to
return all the disabled equipment back into service. This is causing serious
concern on the part of the coalition command. The M1A2 Abrams tanks are not
known for the their reliable engines as it is, but in the sand storm
conditions multiple breakdowns became a real problem for the tank crews.

All attempts by the US paratroopers to capture the town of Kirkuk have
yielded no result. The Americans counted on the support of the Kurds but the
latter refused to take a direct part in the attack and demanded guarantees
from the US command that it will prevent a Turkish invasion. The Turkish
themselves are avoiding giving any such guarantees.

Additionally, the situation [at Kirkuk] is affected by the lack of heavy
weapons on the part of the US paratroopers. The aviation support alone is
clearly not sufficient. The northern group of forces commander Marine Brig.
Gen. Osman has requested artillery and armored vehicles.

All indications are that so far the US is unable to form a combat-capable
strike force in this area.

According to satellite reconnaissance it seems likely that the Iraqis had
time to remove the captured Apache Longbow attack helicopter of the 11th
Aviation Regiment. The pieces remaining at the landing site following a US
bombing strike indicate that the bombs hit a crudely constructed mockup.

Aerial bombardment of Baghdad has so far failed to produce the expected
results. All targets designated before the war have been hit 3 to 7 times,
but this had almost no effect of the combat readiness of the Iraqi army,
their air defenses or the command and control structures.

It seems that during preparation for the war the Iraqis were able to create
new, well-protected communication lines and control centers. There is plenty
of intelligence information indicating that so far the US electronic
reconnaissance was unable to locate and to penetrate the Iraqi command's
communications network, which is an indication of the network's high
technological sophistication.

A particular point of concern for the US command is the huge overuse of
precision-guided munitions and cruise missiles. Already the supply of heavy
cruise missiles like the "Tomahawk" has been reduced by a third and, at the
current rate of use, in three weeks the US will be left only with the
untouchable strategic supply of these missiles. A similar situation exists
with other types of precision-guided munitions. "The rate of their use is
incompatible with the obtained results. We are literally dropping gold into
the mud!" said Gen. Richard Mayers during a meeting at Pentagon yesterday
morning. [reverse translation from Russian]

The US experts already call this war a "crisis". "It was enough for the
enemy to show a little resistance and some creative thinking as our
technological superiority begun to quickly lose all its meaning. Our
expenses are not justified by the obtained results. The enemy is using an
order of magnitude cheaper weapons to reach the same goals for which we
spend billions on technological whims of the defense industry!" said Gen.
Stanley McCrystal during the same Pentagon meeting. [reverse translation
from Russian]

Since the early morning today the coalition high command and the Joint Chief
of Staff are in an online conference joined by the Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld. This meeting immediately follows an earlier meeting last
night at the White House. During the night meeting with President Bush
emergency actions were outlined to resolve the standstill in Iraq. The
existing course of actions is viewed as "ineffective and leading to a
crisis". The Secretary of State Collin Powell warned that, if the war in
Iraq continues for more than a month, it might lead to unpredictable
consequences in international politics.

The Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Gen. Richard Mayers reported on the
proposed actions and corrections to the plan of the operation in Iraq.
George Bush demanded that the military breaks the standstill in Iraq and
within a week achieves significant military progress. A particular
attention, according to Bush, should be paid to finding and eliminating the
top Iraqi political and military leadership. Bush believes that Saddam
Hussein and his closest aides are the cornerstone of the Iraqi defense.

During today's online meeting at the coalition headquarters Gen. Franks was
criticized for inefficient command of his troops and for his inability to
concentrate available forces on the main tasks.

According to [Russian military] intelligence Pentagon made a decision to
significantly reinforce the coalition. During the next two weeks up to
50,000 troops and no less than 500 tanks will arrive to the combat area from
the US military bases in Germany and Albania. By the end of April 120,000
more troops and up to 1,200 additional tanks will be sent to support the war
against Iraq.

A decision was made to change the way aviation is used in this war. The use
of precision-guided munitions will be scaled down and these weapons will be
reserved for attacking only known, confirmed targets. There will be an
increase in the use of conventional high-yield aviation bombs,
volume-detonation bombs and incendiary munitions. The USAF command is
ordered to deliver to airbases used against Iraq a two-week supply of
aviation bombs of 1-tonn caliber and higher as well as volume-detonation and
incendiary bombs. This means that Washington is resorting to the "scorched
earth" tactics and carpet-bombing campaign.