[PEN-L:36126] Re: Basra uprising wishful thinking?

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

At 2003-03-25 20:10 -0600, you wrote:
> 25 Mar 2003 18:10:36 GMT
> British source says unaware of any Basra uprising

This morning London time, the news media can say little about this
uprising. The streets are quoted as being quiet. Clearly there was a lot of
wishful thinking but even Rumsfeld had to appear to distance himself form
encouraging any premature rising that would lead to massacres. Analysts are
now muttering about the fog of war. But is has allowed the British press to
lead on headlines about British liberators, with trite pictures of soldiers
handing out sweets to little boys. (This is known as winning hearts and
minds in an ancient civilisation.)

But I now guess it was more than wishful thinking however desperately the
hegemons need an uprising.

1) the sequence of events look a provocation - a) a snatch squad "took out"
the head of the Baath party in Basra. b) someone stirred up mutterings and
frustrated feeling in a crowded part of the city. then the Brits fired on
mortars, allegedly attacking this area, and a well timed massive special
bomb "took out" the Baath party HQ in order to give a  supposedly powerful
message to the population of Basra.

2) the story was blown up for the London evening media and press editions,
to cover the fact that the first blue on blue deaths to be committed by
British troops on one another occurred the previous night. One Brit tank
fired on another in the dark. The technology did not protect them. Two are
dead, and two seriously wounded. And actually it is part of the fact that
the Brits dare not surround the whole of Basra, and have a dodgy front line
to the west of the city, which they have to try to maintain in confusing
circumstance.

3) appallingly bad British intelligence. Major Sir General Michael Wall, a
nice British chap, whose intelligence does not extend beyond the pages of
the Daily Telegraph, was not only burbling on about how hopeful a rising
would be, and how come day light they might consider whether to go in and
support it, (if it had not already been suppressed) But through him we
learned of the mystery of the Iraqi regular division that was supposed to
have surrendered 3 days ago. He assured us that they had reformed in Basra
picking up discarded equipment because the Baath party had threatened their
families. At least he did not try to tell us that they are Republican Guard
in disguise. This failure to understand that a people might wish to defend
their homeland and display amazing courage is, bluntly, imperialist and
racist. The aggressors deserve to be punished for this alone. And they
should pay reparations.

I do not know quite where the odds have got to, but I share with Soula a
feeling that there is a high probability the US will lose this war. I never
bet money, but I would happily put 10 pounds on it.

Come to think of it, I wonder if Ladbrokes are quoting odds, or would that
be unpatriotic?


Chris Burford
London