[PEN-L:36105] rising in Basra?

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

9:20pm London
confused reports in London this evening of a rising in Basra. How much this
is spontaneous is unclear. There are no western reporters inside. British
army said it attacked Iraqi mortars alleged to be firing on civilian areas.
Enormous bomb flattened Baath HQ. Maybe undercover agents triggering a
rising. But with Basra imperfectly sealed off this move could risk a
blood-bath however democratic some aspects of a rising might be. The
hegemons desperately need a rising, as they cannot besiege two cities for
ever, and senior Iraqi generals did not defect. Trying to battle through to
an area of civilian resistance in the middle of a dense city, with the risk
of counteratttck against their forces, could provoke enormous massacres.
Yet if they do not intervene and the rising was in anyway genuine, then the
hegemons lose all credibility for their claim to be liberators. At 9pm
British commanders appeared to be interested, but very likely going to
leave it till daylight before considering an intervention. By which time an
uprising might be extinguished. Once again the hegemons appear not to be
seriously interested in the feelings and desires of ordinary Iraqi people
except in so far as they are considered mindless fodder for Saddam, or
potential fodder for their side.

Things may be finely balanced but it is already clear that the whole
hegemonic strategy has been based on a serious underestimate of the degree
of national resistance that Saddam could call upon. Thereby again
undermining the claim to be a just war in that it may not be able to assure
victory without great cost, even if you accept the political premise. The
Rumsfeld strategy of light and technically well armed forces inherently
underestimates the role of people and political conviction in war. It may
require reckless gambles with civilian uprisings.

Chris Burford

London