[PEN-L:36018] odds turn further against US

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

This morning London time, I would raise the odds against a US victory
further to 25%.

The Turks have turned from allies of the US, to neutrals, and now into
implicit supporters of Saddam, pinning Kurdish troops down to prevent
them opening up a second front in the north. It is in their interests
Saddam is not overthrown.

The propaganda war has turned totally against the hegemons. The BBC News
24 caption "Battle for Control" shows how with incident after
incident the allies have lost control of the agenda.

The strategy depends on what increasingly looks like a total
miscalculation of Iraqi society.

Senior defence analysts in the UK like Sir Tim Garden note with
detachment that the chemical factory will have to be investigated. Worse
they confirm the rumblings from the US military of opposition to Rumsfeld
and the "civilians" around him, that Rumsfeld has totally
underestimated the numbers required because his model depends on mobility
and use of high tech. They need double the numbers, (essentially because
of the high morale of the enemy, and the extended communication lines,
where they cannot defend their support troops with only 130,000 combat
troops). They need time.

And the longer the media go on reporting a war with inevitable accidents,
blunders, moral dilemmas,  and humiliations, the weaker the hegemons
will look. 

Rumsfeld is in deep trouble, and Bush cannot afford to sack him. He gives
a target to the timid Democrats. Meanwhile the anti-war movement in the
US is rising and every one of their actions which gets televised back in
Iraq, strengthens the Iraqi resistance.

Perhaps 25% is too low a figure. But let us be cautious.

Chris Burford
London