[PEN-L:34285] U.S. Troops in Germany Told to Pack for Turkey

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

U.S. Troops in Germany Told to Pack for Turkey

By Karl Vick and Bradley Graham
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, January 31, 2003; Page A19


ISTANBUL, Jan. 30 -- U.S. troops in Germany that would form part
of a northern front in a war against Iraq have received orders to
pack up and prepare to head to Turkey as the Turkish government
nears a crucial decision on whether to accept the forces.

Turkey's National Security Council, which is dominated by
powerful senior generals, has scheduled a meeting Friday to
consider a recommendation to the Turkish parliament, which has
the final say on a U.S. petition to base troops in Turkey for a
possible invasion.

U.S. military officials said today that nearly 2,000 troops from
the 1st Infantry Division in Germany were preparing to depart for
Turkey. That deployment would largely involve headquarters staff,
intelligence, communications and other support units -- lead
elements of a larger, armored force, the bulk of which will
likely come from the 4th Infantry Division in Texas, military
officials said.

The Turkish public has steadfastly opposed allowing the country
to become a platform for war against Iraq. But analysts and
diplomats said they expected the council to endorse the dispatch
of 15,000 to 20,000 U.S. infantry and open military airfields to
warplanes supported by thousands more U.S. military personnel.

That level of cooperation would be welcomed by Pentagon planners,
who scaled back an original request for 80,000 troops to
accommodate Turkish political realities. But U.S. officials have
expressed worry that the recently elected government, in its
consideration of public opinion, could wait too long to bring the
matter before parliament.

"It will probably be positive, but I'm not sure the Americans
will get everything they want," a senior Turkish official said,
on condition of anonymity, about the National Security Council
meeting.

Surveys show that more than 80 percent of Turks oppose a war in
Iraq, largely because of concerns about the potential damage to
the economy, especially to the crucial tourism industry. Losses
associated with the 1991 Gulf War topped $50 billion by some
estimates, and Turkey's economy already is in recession. Turkey's
biggest concern is that a new war may revive separatist
sentiments among its Kurdish minority if Iraq's Kurds are allowed
to form a new republic , and especially if they seize the
northern Iraqi oil centers of Kirkuk and Mosul.

But on questions of national security, the Turkish public grants
great deference to its military establishment. When opinion polls
ask Turks whom they trust most, the general staff finishes behind
only President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who also sits on the Security
Council. No Turkish parliament has failed to endorse a council
recommendation.

That calculation has anchored the Bush administration's dealings
with Turkey from the earliest stages of planning for a campaign
in Iraq. From the start, U.S. officials have bet that however
much Turkey opposes the idea of a war, in the end it cannot
afford to stay on the sidelines.

Turkish generals have moved forward with plans to move a
substantial force several dozen miles into northern Iraq to
prevent incursions by Kurdish separatists and to manage the flow
of refugees seeking to escape fighting. The general staff
announced Wednesday that it was sending fresh equipment and
materiel to Turkish troops on the Iraqi border "to prepare them
ahead of possible security developments in the region."

Turkey has also prepared a plan to appeal to NATO for help in
defending against any retaliatory attack by Iraq. The alliance
has twice in two weeks deferred a U.S. request for such aid,
which would include deploying Patriot anti-missile systems and
AWACS radar planes.

But Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, which controls
almost two-thirds of the Grand National Assembly, has yet to
schedule a vote or untie itself from frequent public statements
that a vote must await a fresh Security Council resolution
authorizing force against Iraq.

U.S. officials, who have deferred to Turkey's democratic process,
have been watching the clock nervously. A team of 150 U.S.
military personnel completed surveys of Turkish bases last
Friday, and preparations are underway for the Corps of Engineers
to perform perhaps $300 million in upgrades to accommodate U.S.
forces.

Graham reported from Washington.