[PEN-L:34237] technology spillover

["Ian Murray" <seamus2001@xxxxxxxxx>]

Open arms

The vast and unguarded stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in the former Soviet
Union pose a far greater threat than Iraq

Richard Norton-Taylor
Friday January 31, 2003
The Guardian

As George Bush and Tony Blair prepare for war against Iraq with the declared intention
of ridding that country of weapons of mass destruction, a much greater threat lies
elsewhere. UN inspectors are on the ground in Iraq looking for hidden nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons, yet huge quantities are piling up in Russia, out in
the open, without any effective supervision.
This was the message from a recent conference in London entitled "Preventing
catastrophic terrorism". Sam Nunn, former Democrat senator and one of the conference
chairmen, described the threat from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as the
gravest danger in the world today. Preventing their spread, he said, should be the
"central organising security principle for the 21st century".

Such weapons are more likely to be used by terrorists than so-called "rogue states",
he warned. "If terrorists gain access to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons,
they can destroy lives, destabilise economies and change history."

Yet terrorists are more likely to get their hands on them, not by being given them by
states or governments, but by stealing them or buying them on the open market. The
real danger, said Nunn, came from what he called the "private sector", including the
US. He pointed out that most laboratories contain dangerous material, yet they are not
subjected to any rules or standards.

The focus of the London conference, organised by the Washington-based Centre for
Strategic and International Studies and bringing together experts from 15 thinktanks
around the world, was Russia. There, more than 20,000 nuclear warheads are sitting in
120 separate nuclear weapons storage sites. Hundreds of tons of bomb-making equipment
are dispersed throughout Russia's network of nuclear facilities, which employ almost a
million people.

Nearly two million rounds of nerve agents are housed in a decaying chemical weapons
store at Shchuchye in Russia's Kurgan region. The artillery shells are small enough to
fit in a briefcase and each one has enough lethal doses to kill 100,000 people. The
store's roof is leaking and it is built on marshland.

None of Russia's stocks of nerve agents has been destroyed and its former biological
weapons programme remains closed to outsiders. According to the latest official
estimates, Russia's stockpile of chemical weapons amounts to 40,000 tons, the bulk
consisting of organophosphorus nerve agents - sarin, soman and VX. Some 120 nuclear
submarines and 280 nuclear reactors are waiting to be dismantled.

The physical protection against theft or seizure of biological pathogens in a number
of the sites in which they are stored is inadequate, warns a four-volume report drawn
up by the CSIS. According to Nunn, haggling in Congress is blocking US support to
secure the Shchuchye store.

Over the past decade, according to the International Atomic Energy Authority, there
have been 18 incidents involving the seizure of stolen highly enriched uranium or
plutonium. They included a foiled attempt by Russian workers at one nuclear weapons
facility in 1998 to steal enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb. According to
the Russian authorities, terrorists may have conducted at least two surveillance
missions of nuclear warhead storage sites in the past year.

Thousands of Russian weapons scientists and technicians are unemployed and there are
plans to lay off many more. These people present an additional threat - short of
money, their knowledge could be useful (and dangerous) on the open market.

The report offers a solution. "The huge pool of underemployed Russian mathematicians
and physi cists," it suggests, "could be turned into high-end computer programmers,
ideal for developing complicated programmes for the future, like air control systems
to handle the huge increase in aviation traffic. Russia could become an offshore
programming powerhouse like India, whose software exports now amount to $7bn a year."

The report notes, too, that the Russian government identified biotechnology as a
target industry for the 21st century. This could provide a "commercial platform" for
former biological weapons experts, who could also help to address the critical gaps in
healthcare, and support the development of innovative medical technologies and
products. "Similar efforts to develop novel laser applications, nanotechnologies, fuel
cells and other cutting-edge technologies should be explored," adds the report.

The conference proposed a plan of action, including turning into actual financial
commitments last year's pledge by the G8 group of industrialised countries to earmark
$20bn over the next decade to secure the stockpiles of nuclear, chemical and
biological weapons built up over decades by the former Soviet Union.

The problem, it was concluded, should be seen as a global one, since the stockpiles
pose dangers not just for Russia, but for the entire world. The potential threat posed
by Russia's weapons of mass destruction puts into context the threat posed by Iraq,
especially given the lack of evidence - despite claims made by George Bush and Tony
Blair - of links between the Baghdad regime and al-Qaida.

· Richard Norton-Taylor is the Guardian's security affairs editor.