[PEN-L:33165] Tories sink further

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Extraordinary opinion poll in today's Guardian shows the UK Tories sinking
even further after more than a week of squirming headlines in which Mrs
Blair, a judge in her own right, has been pilloried by the Tory press for
being "economical with the truth" about the use of a convicted fraudster
introduced to him by a dodgy friend, to buy two flats (apartments) in
Bristol, where their son is starting university.

Uncoached by Alistair Campbell, she issued superficial denials that became
exposed as half truth and lies, by the standards of absolute transparency
now demanded of government, and of those close to government.

Yet there was something strange about the frenzy of the attack by the
Conservative Press, at a time when the UK is preparing to join the US in
the biggest war since Vietnam, the UK economy is hovering on the edge of a
downturn, and the New Labour government looks increasingly out of ideas
about how to improve the quality of the state sector in response to the
extra injection of funds.

What I think the remarkable opinion poll data shows, is the complete
mastery of the New Labour technique over the political agenda. It is what I
call total social management. It not only includes systematic opportunism
about the management of the capitalist economy, it uses focus groups and
every device of marketing to tailor government policies to what is
acceptable to swing voters.

In the theory of the ice cream vendors on the beach, New Labour not only
occupies the middle position on the beach, most accessible to all
customers, but it will scientifically move its stall a little to the west,
or to the east, to fit in with changing configurations of the beach, and
the distribution of holiday makers.

What we are also seeing is that despite all logic, the Liberal Democrats
have been able to play alongside this consensus strategy more successfully
than the Tories, instead of getting squeezed in a two party system, when
the government becomes questionable. They have been able to appeal to
people wanting more spending on the welfare state, than for a long time,
Labour was willing to give, but they also provide a hint of individualistic
self interest, attractive to more successful middle strata people, who
still want to appear to have a social conscience.

What is striking is that in the minds of active voters, the Conservative
Party is still regarded as "the nasty party" as its new chairperson
disarmingly confessed at its conference this summer. It is not fashionable
to say you are a conservative supporter in lots of middle territory
circles. It is acceptable to murmur some cynicism about the government, or
some vague interest in the Liberal Democrats. Except in some rural
constituencies, some 5 - 10% of the educated electorate will systematically
choose to vote for whichever party is more likely to defeat the
conservatives. It is the conservatives who have been squeezed rather than
the Liberal Democrats. Party loyalty has reduced. Swing voting is the new
loyalty, and it is more socially acceptable in a consensus political
environment.

All this could change except that in this powerfully consensus-driven
gravitational field, the Conservative party has not got its fundamental
economic and social position clear. It is riven more than the other parties
about the division among British capitalists about whether to move closer
to Europe than not. Even though the majority of the population is
euro-sceptic, they sense that the Conservative party is no longer the
authoritative party of business. There is something marginal and unstable
about them. So although 2/5 of the British working class has always voted
Conservative, presumably out of social aspirations, the undermining of the
old class solidities, and patterns of deference and social climbing,
undermines Conservative voting. There is no point in attempting social
climbing if you are going to appear silly.

The Labour vote is no longer the result of idealistic enthusiasm. It is
vulnerable to sudden emotional revolts, like the fuel tax rebellion. But it
is a mark of the dominance of the marketing policies that New Labour uses
to manage the total society and total economy, to promote capitalism within
a coordinated social context.


> Tories fall to lowest point for four years
>
> Alan Travis, home affairs editor Tuesday December 17, 2002 The Guardian
>
> The Conservatives have plunged to their lowest poll rating for four years
> despite the damage inflicted on the personal reputations of the prime
> minister and his wife by the row involving conman Peter Foster, according
> to this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll.
>
> The survey shows that the Tories have failed to capitalise on the affair,
> with Labour amazingly emerging unscathed on 41%. However, Tony Blair's
> personal rating has fallen into negative territory for the first time
> since the petrol crisis two years ago.
>
> The ICM poll shows that Tory support has fallen a further two points to
> 27% -their lowest rating since November 1998. The Liberal Democrats are
> now only four points behind on 23%, their highest rating since May 1994,
> and breathing down the necks of the Conservatives.
>
> The continual decline of the Conservatives from 34% in September to 27% on
> the ICM poll now is likely to spark a new round of bloodletting in the new
> year and Conservative Central Office has written off hopes of widespread
> gains in the May local elections in an attempt to stave off a leadership
> challenge to Iain Duncan Smith next spring.
>
> On these figures if there were a general election tomorrow not only would
> Labour be returned with an even bigger majority but the Tory party
> chairwoman, Theresa May, and fellow shadow cabinet members David Davis and
> Oliver Letwin would all lose their seats to Liberal Democrat challengers.
>
> The Guardian/ICM poll confirms a sharp swing in public opinion against
> Cherie Blair in the last six days.
>
> About 45% of voters now say that they are unhappy with the explanation
> that Mrs Blair gave last week for her dealings with Peter Foster over her
> Bristol property deal.
>
> This is 10 points higher than the 35% who said they were unhappy when ICM
> first asked the question last Wednesday in the immediate aftermath of her
> televised "I'm no superwoman" speech.
>
> Although 48% of Labour voters say they back Mrs Blair, even among the
> party's voters, this poll shows that 28% of Labour supporters are unhappy
> with her explanation.
>
> Those who say they are satisfied with what she has had to say has dropped
> from 34% last Wednesday to only 26% now.
>
> The damage to Mrs Blair's reputation has also hit Tony Blair's own
> personal rating among the voters. His overall net rating stands at -1,
> with 45% of voters saying that they are not satisfied with the job he is
> doing as prime minister and 44% saying they are satisfied. This compares
> with a net rating of +6 in May this year, the last time ICM tested opinion
> on this question.
>
> The fall in the prime minister's personal rating is not devastating for Mr
> Blair but shows that the Peter Foster affair has finally taken the shine
> off the "Camelot factor" that once enveloped Downing Street and made him
> as popular as Winston Churchill. The legacy of the Foster saga may be a
> growing sense of "sleaze" that leads to an even lower turnout at the next
> general election.
>
> This month's Iraq war tracker shows that opposition to a military attack
> continues to strengthen and is up 3 points to 44%. Pro-war senti ment has
> also risen strongly and is up 4 points to 36%. The "don't knows" have
> fallen by 7 points over the month to 20% with people beginning to make up
> their minds amid further signs that an attack looks increasingly likely in
> the new year.
>
> ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,006 adults by telephone between
> December 13 and 15. Interviews were conducted across the country and the
> results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.