[PEN-L:32894] Re: Bush's Fire Plan Won't Work

[Michael Pollak <mpollak@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Sun, 8 Dec 2002, Sabri Oncu wrote:

> Of course, we easterners are much better than you are because we able to
> think nonlinearly and hence never fall into the trap of deterministic
> (what the heck dose this have with linearity?) conspiracy theories.

Surely you jest, Sabri, even more than you usually jest :o)  My impression
is that in Turkey (and most of the Middle East), if you have a political
theory that is *not* a conspiracy theory it's considered shallow and naive
:o)

Of course, for most of Middle Eastern history politics *has* been a
behind-the-scenes conspiracy so it makes sense people would get in the
habit of thinking like this this.  The only real gripe I have with this
alternative epistemology is that attributes intelligence and competence to
conspirators far beyond anything warranted by the evidence of history.
Subtlety and secretiveness are no guarantee of expertise.  And when there
is more than one conspiracy -- and isn't there always? -- and there are
conflicts -- and aren't there always? -- there is no reason to expect a
predictable or controllable outcome that can be foreseen three steps in
advance.  Without which, all you really have is politics.

Michael