[PEN-L:31612] Kagarlitsky on Putin

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Moscow Times
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2002. Page 10

Is This the Beginning of the End for Putin?

By Boris Kagarlitsky

President Vladimir Putin's rule started with the Moscow apartment
bombings in 1999 and with his promises to establish order in the
country. Many Russian citizens saw in Putin the embodiment of
their dream of a trustworthy state and a firm hand. Order and
security were to be attained no matter what the cost, while human
rights and freedom of speech were put on the back burner or
completely forgotten.

Today, Putin is up against the most serious crisis of his
presidency. The group of gunmen who seized the "Nord Ost" theater
in Moscow have dealt the Kremlin regime a blow straight to the
heart. Putin promised security, but three years after he came to
power, fully armed gunmen in Chechen uniform were able to ride
unhindered around the capital in jeeps and seize hundreds of
hostages. He promised order, but his law enforcement agencies and
military demonstrate total powerlessness.

One could state that the "counter-terrorist operation" conducted
in Chechnya over the past three years has been a complete flop.
But that would be untrue, because there was never any attempt to
conduct a counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya. It hasn't even
been a war, but rather a brutal and senseless pogrom.

In the Kremlin, it has long been understood that the Chechen war
cannot be won -- however it could be forgotten. One could pretend
that the problem was not being dealt with because it did not
exist and then convince everyone else that was the case. But
reality always gets its own back. The Kremlin won the information
battle, by silencing its critics and forcing the mass media to
keep quiet about what was actually going on in Chechnya. However,
having won that battle, it lost the war. The belief in the
omnipotence of propaganda resulted in political impotence.

The reality of the Chechen tragedy burst into the political life
of the country in the most brutal manner: The war came to Moscow,
ripping through all information barriers and impediments. I mean
war and not terrorism. You can condemn the gunmen as much as you
like, but it would be bare-faced hypocrisy to omit that the
federal army in Chechnya behaves itself considerably worse than
the Chechens who seized the theater.

How many people in Chechnya have disappeared without a trace in
the past three years? How many cities and villages have been
destroyed? How many people have been forced to abandon their
homes because life was made unbearable for them? It is the
federal army that over the three years: abducted and killed
Chechens; systematically pillaged and destroyed peaceful
villages; has been terrorizing innocent people. And it is they
who bear most of the responsibility for what has now happened. If
you are looking for terrorists, you could do worse than to start
the search in the Kremlin.

Terrified politicians continue to mutter the mantra that you
cannot negotiate with terrorists. But all the experience of the
two Chechen wars points to the opposite. First, Moscow declares
all moderate Chechen politicians, all those with whom an
agreement could have been reached, to be terrorists. And then
when radical elements actually do come to the fore and when the
Chechen side starts to resort to terrorist methods, the
leadership in Moscow caves in and starts to negotiate. That was
the case with Budyonnovsk and it seems to be repeating itself
before our very eyes.

By rejecting a political resolution and wagering on force alone,
the federal authorities condemned themselves to failure. Chechen
leaders are not so strong politically, but Chechen fighters are
prepared to fight to the last man. Unlike Russian generals, they
are ready to die. And for that reason they will never be defeated
by the use of force.

The seizure of the theater is seen as proof of the impotence of
the federal security services, law enforcement agencies and
military. Although, one could equally argue that it is proof of
their strength, as the Chechen operation bears the hallmarks of
Russian training. It was Russian specialists that prepared
Chechen special forces for war in Abkhazia. It would seem that
the Chechens were fast learners. Also, no matter how well
prepared the gunmen were, the question arises of how they could
have carried out such a large-scale operation in the center of
the capital without the support of influential individuals. This
is something that comes to mind to anyone who knows about the
constant problems from the police experienced in Moscow by people
"of Caucasian extraction."

With this new terrorist act in Moscow, the sun is starting to set
on Putin's rule. Let's leave analysis of the various versions of
this event to the conspiracy theorists. However, its consequences
will be no less dramatic than those in 1999.

Boris Kagarlitsky is a Moscow-based sociologist.

Article at:
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2002/10/26/008.html