[PEN-L:30510] Re: Re: Comments on CAFTA etc.

["F G" <cantthinkofahandle@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

> From: Michael Perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Reply-To: pen-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> To: pen-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [PEN-L:30492] Re: Comments on CAFTA etc.
> Date: Mon, 23 Sep 2002 18:54:41 -0700
>
> What could possibly make the leadership of a country move in this
> direction?  Are they merely going for personal gain or fear of retribution
> from the US?  Are they stupid?
> --
> Michael Perelman
> Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
>
> Tel. 530-898-5321
> E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Michael, the situation is complex and confusing.  I am not completely sure
what the ruling class and its servants in the right wing parties have been
thinking.  It appears a combination of stupidity and
self-service/corruption.  I don't think U.S. retribution is feared, since it
seems that service to the U.S. is pretty much reflexive and not based on
fear.  To be honest I've not had the chance to investigate in depth what the
ruling sectors plan.  I do know that the financial elite, which includes the
most powerful families (the notorious "7 families" that replaced the
mythical "14 families" of the past), wants to convert the country into a
financial platform for Central America.  Up until now collapse has been
avoided by 2 pillars: the maquilas and informal sector for mass employment
and U.S. emigration+remittances from emigrants.  AFAIK remittances stand at
around $2 billion annually and keep many people afloat.  Moreover the large
banks offer delivery of remittances with commission from the U.S. and this
has become a fountain of accumulation.  So I guess that the plan is to keep
expelling people as much as possible and have them send remittances to bail
out the people who stay.  Also since neoliberalism has failed, there might
just be a lack of an alternative plan that brings enough benefits to the
rest of the population to avoid social explosion while further enriching the
oligarchs.  The FTA with the U.S. might be a last ditch effort.
The country is basically ruled by decree over a depoliticized population.
In the last presidential elections, around 40% of eligible voters came out
and opinion polls show that most people are disillusioned with all politics
and place their hopes on either "the north" (emigration to the U.S.) or
"God".  Also polls show that most people feel that nothing significant has
been done to relieve poverty or better the economic situation.  Yet the
bizarre fact is that despite the suffering, the president continues to
receive high approval ratings!  Part of the explanation appears to lie in
that many in the population don't believe that the president and his ARENA
party are responsible.  The rule by decree is done through kickbacks on the
one hand and the subordination of the 3 right wing parties at the
congressional level on the other.  Together, ARENA, the PDC (Christian
Democrats, a hollow shell of their former selves) and the notoriously
corrupt PCN (National Concilliation Party, which used to be the electoral
face of the military dictatorship) constitute a majority in the National
Assembly and pretty much pass whatever the executive sends them.  Part of
this is a cultural inheritance of the dicatorial past and the way politics
has always been done here.  Many people are politically unsophisticated and
vote for parties without serious consideration for platforms and principles
(i.e. because their friends vote for X, or they hold nationalist or
anticommunist values, misunderstand the way the parties behave in the real
world etc.) thus sustaining the PDC-ARENA-PCN dictatorship.

As for the left and its failures and successes, that may be a topic of a
future post.  I'll just say that there has not been leadership, at least
I've seen little, to construct organized mass opposition.

-Frank G.

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