[PEN-L:30480] reverse domino theory

["Devine, James" <jdevine@xxxxxxx>]

Title: reverse domino theory

[here's a theory that's actually _worse_ than the original...]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/la-na-outlook23sep23.story

Still a Few Dots to Connect in Iraq Domino Theory
By RONALD BROWNSTEIN
TIMES STAFF WRITER

L.A. TIMES/September 23 2002

Behind concern about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, there's another force propelling American forces toward combat in Iraq: A new domino theory.

This version of the theory inverts the original. During the Cold War, the first domino theory held that if Vietnam fell to the Communists, neighboring nations all the way to the Philippines might fall away from us too -- toppling like dominoes.

The new domino theorists are arguing that if the United States overthrows Hussein and creates a pro-Western democratic regime in Iraq, the example will increase internal pressure to open closed societies such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria. This time the dominoes would fall in our direction.

This theory has become a central -- perhaps the central -- justification for war in conservative circles, especially among the neoconservative foreign policy intellectuals. The Wall Street Journal editorial page, the leading bulletin board for conservatives, summarized the case this year: "If the U.S. removes Saddam in the right way, advocating a democracy instead of replacing him with another thug, the lesson will echo through the Arab world."

These arguments have migrated into the administration's own brief for war. The headlines after Bush's United Nations speech focused on his demand that Iraq disarm and comply with a long list of other U.N. resolutions. But Bush also endorsed the neoconservatives' new domino theory, arguing that democracy in Iraq -- as well as in Afghanistan and an independent Palestinian state -- would inspire "reforms throughout the Muslim world."

This goal has implications the administration hasn't fully acknowledged, and may explain some of its recent fuzziness on its ultimate aims in Iraq. For much of the world, an inspection regime that convincingly disarmed Iraq would be enough to end the crisis. But to the extent that President Bush has embraced the new domino theory, that's insufficient. Iraq can't be the first domino unless Hussein is removed and a new, open political system takes root. For the domino theorists, the goal isn't just disarmament but transformation....

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Jim Devine jdevine@xxxxxxx &  http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine