[PEN-L:30427] RE: military ricardianism

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Jim said:

> Why do you say that the U.S. dinosaur is "dying"? Capitalism
> doesn't die -- and neither does its most powerful nation --
> unless there's something to replace it.
>
>

I did not say Capitalism will die, although that is one of the
possibilities among many. What I meant was that the US will not
be able to turn herself into a world empire and in her efforts to
build that empire, will collapse, as all the other big empires of
the past did. And I think this is very likely to happen exactly
for the same reason Micheal mentioned: "probably as a result of
overreaching itself."

Of course, forecasts based on past data always come with
(sometimes very large) forecasting errors. Further, what will
replace it is beyond my ability to forecast. According to Gunder
Frank, possibly China will replace it, but this is his view. Also
that the USA may collapse doesn't mean that the American nation
will die or disappear. It just means that the USA won't be the
bully in the hood anymore, if my forecast becomes a reality. Who
knows, maybe the USA will disintegrate into smaller states or
something. How would I know?

Sabri