[PEN-L:30359] Re: Re: Recessionless Sri Lanka

["Anthony D'Costa" <dcosta@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Recessions are observable better when the economy is at a higher growth
trend.  Most developing countries of Africa and South Asia have generally
grown at fairly low rates, although actual data for different years might
show differently.  Consider India's (sic) Hindu rate of growth of 3.5% for
a good three decades since 1950.  There were recessions during the 1960s,
war with China, Pakistan, and decline in grain output due to droughts.
But I think because these economies are not complete market economies the
recessions are not that devastating.  There are various social and
institutional ways by which people are shielded from the worst of the
market downturns (though the actual conditions they live in is nothing to
right home about).  On second thoughts, why recessions now might be
explained by the fact that these economies, including SL is becoming more
market-oriented, suggesting that other non-market forms of social
regulation are becoming weaker.

Cheers, A

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Anthony P. D'Costa
Associate Professor				Ph: (253) 692-4462
Comparative International Development		Fax: (253) 692-5718		
University of Washington			Box Number: 358436
1900 Commerce Street				
Tacoma, WA 98402, USA
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On Wed, 18 Sep 2002, Michael Pollak wrote:

>
> On Tue, 18 Sep 2002, Anthony D'Costa wrote:
>
> > I don't think the civil war has lasted 30 years
>
> I'm sorry, that was a typo.  I meant 20, which is still rounding up a
> year.  It started in 1983.
>
> Still unclear about the rest, though.  Do developing countries commonly go
> decades without a recession, just growing slowly?  Do you know of others?
>
> Michael
>
>