[PEN-L:30258] Questions about war economics

[michael perelman <michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Note: the we's, us's and our's are not intended to imply any personal
identification

The current war situation seems like Vietnam in the sense that it will
receive some lukewarm support abroad and not very deep support at home.
I suspect that we can buy some mercenaries to help in Afghanistan, but I
cannot see a clear victory there.  Toppling the Iraqi government will be
easy, but the consequences there may be difficult.  At the same time, we
may be sliding into another conflict in Colombia.

We can win battles from space with little danger to our military, but I
don't think we can win wars that way.  I may be wrong, but any real
"victory" in Afghanistan seems far off.  I have no idea when troops
returned from the Balkans.

This accumulation of wars without end can continue as long as they do
not create regional conflicts, which can get out of hand.

Now, to the economic questions.  World War II put industrial workers
back on the job.  This war seems more likely to further divert scarce
technical talent, without the prospect of planting the seeds for major
technological advances, such as eventually came out of World War II.

I am currently reading Philip Bobbitt's Shield of Achilles about how the
state evolved in response to changing military tactics.  He is mostly
emphasizing the centralization of finance in order to maintain ever
increasing military machines.  But then, most of the great powers
overreached themselves and then fell back.

My vision of the United States is one of a continually weakening economy
alongside a strengthening military.  At some point, this divergence will
create a crisis.

At the same time, the little that I know about military history tells me
that support for war depends upon a feeling of fairness once the public
is called on to make sacrifices.

Maybe this war will not require sacrifices except from the poor and
working-class children who find themselves in battlefields.  At present
the war is insignificantly small.  Even a three-week jaunt in the desert
will be in economic drop in the bucket.

But if this adventure leads to serious military commands from the
secondary conflagration, and all bets are off.

--

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail michael@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx