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Backing on Iraq? Let's Make a Deal
 Allies: Behind-the-scenes talks get underway to see which inducements might
sway nations.




By PAUL RICHTER and GREG MILLER, TIMES STAFF WRITERS


WASHINGTON -- After struggling for months to talk other nations into helping
oust Saddam Hussein, President Bush is beginning to use terms they might
find easier to understand: cash, weapons, business deals and favors.

Bush's speech Thursday at the United Nations marked the start of intense
behind-the-scenes negotiations to see what inducements will help convert
countries that so far have been balking, at least publicly, at joining the
anti-Hussein campaign.

U.S. officials expect the Turks to ask for weapons and debt relief, the
Russians and French for access to Iraqi oilfield business, the Qataris for
cash to build an air base, and the Jordanians for guarantees of oil and
trade. Officials expect many other countries to join the horse trading, and
predict that they won't be shy.

"Countries in the Middle East take the bazaari approach," said Danielle
Pletka, a former Senate aide who now works at the American Enterprise
Institute for Public Policy Research. "Once they know we want to buy ... the
sky's the limit."

Said a senior congressional aide, "This is a great time to step forward and
get something you want from the United States."

The administration's initial focus will be on members of the United Nations
Security Council, notably Russia, France and China, officials say. Their
backing will be important soon, as the United States tries to persuade the
council to enforce resolutions demanding that Iraq abandon its chemical,
biological and nuclear weapons programs.

But U.S. officials will also try to persuade many other countries in the
Middle East and farther afield to cooperate with a military campaign, or at
least to temper their opposition.

The Pentagon still needs to win commitments from countries near Iraq for use
of military bases and overflight rights.

The effort mirrors U.S. coalition-building before the 1991 Persian Gulf War,
and before the U.S. assault last fall on the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
Yet this job promises to be considerably tougher, because many nations are
skeptical of the need for war, and the United States doesn't have access to
the billions of dollars that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others contributed to
the 1991 Persian Gulf War campaign.

"The horse trading will be much more difficult this time," predicted Edward
S. Walker Jr., a former assistant secretary of State for the Middle East who
is now president of the Middle East Institute.

"Part of what you've been seeing is people making a public display of
opposition that will increase the price," he said.

Most countries resent any suggestion that their support can be bought. These
countries insist that such deals are needed simply to reduce the economic
costs and political risks of cooperation.

Turkish officials were furious last winter when former Clinton political
guru Dick Morris declared on American TV that the U.S. had bought their
nation's military cooperation over time by pressing for a generous
International Monetary Fund loan program.

"They were outraged," said Bulent Aliriza, a Turkish expert and former
specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. "It's precisely the wrong image."

Turkey's strategic location and frequent cooperation have made it America's
most important military partner in the region. The Turks contend that their
participation this time would add a huge burden at a time when their country
is trying to cope with crushing economic problems. They are also deeply
worried that war with Iraq might lead to an independent Kurdish state that
would threaten their own eastern territory.

Accordingly, they have a long wish list, including advanced weapons, relief
on their $5-billion debt to the U.S. for weapons purchases, and help from
the United States in ensuring that Turkey continues to receive IMF credits,
U.S. officials say. Some Turkish officials have also pressed the United
States to ensure that any military campaign doesn't take place in the
summer, when it could damage the country's tourist industry.

Turkish officials argue that their country has lost more than $40 billion in
revenue by cooperating with the United States during the Persian Gulf War
and the sanctions against Iraq since.

Turkey stepped in under U.S. pressure this year to lead the international
peacekeeping force in Afghanistan. Congress recently appropriated $228
million to cover Turkey's costs there.

Russia has made little secret of the importance that economics will have in
winning its cooperation. Moscow has told U.S. officials that it wants any
new Baghdad government to honor Iraq's approximately $8-billion debt to
Russia. The Russians also want assurances that any successor government will
allow Russian companies to keep their large share of the Iraqi oil business,
and to get a piece of the business that develops in the new Iraq.

Although State Department officials insist that the U.S. government has made
no commitments, Alexander Vershbow, the U.S. ambassador to Russia, told
reporters this week that Moscow's investments in Iraq would be "better
protected under new leadership."

Russia has yet to receive "a single kopek" of the billions in debt, he
noted.

Another demand may be Washington's silence on Russia's planned $1-billion
nuclear power plant for Iran. After years of complaining that the project
posed a nuclear proliferation threat, the White House has recently lowered
the volume.

Russia's arrangement with the United States could involve an important
non-financial issue: Washington might have signaled that it will give the
Kremlin a free hand against Chechen separatists, including those taking
refuge in U.S.-allied Georgia. Publicly, however, the State Department told
wire services that the U.S. would oppose unilateral Russian military action
inside Georgia.

President Vladimir V. Putin seemed to be preparing fellow Russians for a
reversal of the Kremlin's rejection of military action against Iraq when he
proclaimed that Russia had the right to attack Chechen bases in Georgia to
do its part in the war against terrorism.

In France, an official denied that President Jacques Chirac's government
would seek any financial deal as part of an agreement to join the United
States.

"Our focus on Iraq is about disarmament, not about access to oilfields if
there's a new government," the official said. Yet a U.S. official noted that
the French complained often that after the Gulf War, French companies were
not included in the rebuilding of the Kuwaiti oilfields, as they had been
promised. He said American officials expect to hear from France on this
issue before long.

"We're still in the process of establishing positions, before the French get
to their dollar value," the U.S. official said.

It is not clear whether China will ask the United States to protect its
small but growing business stake in Iraq, or provide other help. China is
not expected to directly support a U.S. campaign; the question is how vocal
and obstructive the Communist nation might be.

In exchange for not loudly opposing U.S. action in Iraq, Beijing will
probably press for satisfaction on its biggest diplomatic concern: Taiwan.
The issue will almost certainly come up during President Jiang Zemin's visit
with Bush in Texas next month. China has been displeased with what it sees
as a tilt toward Taiwan by the Bush administration.

Meanwhile, some foreign diplomats and experts see Iraq as the real reason
the U.S. two weeks ago unexpectedly backed Beijing in its efforts against a
separatist group in northwestern China, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.
After resisting such action, the United States added the organization to its
list of terrorist groups and backed China in adding the group to the U.N.'s
terrorist list.

In the Middle East, Jordan, with a large population of Palestinians and a
border with Iraq, is not expected to play a visible role in any attack on
the Iraqi president. But the United States is eager to ensure Jordan's
long-term stability, and it would probably take steps to ensure a continued
supply of oil and other goods that the Jordanians now receive from Iraq.

The Egyptians, recipients of huge U.S. aid, would likely receive some
additional assistance, even if they are not active participants in an
attack. Syria may use the opportunity to press the United States for an
important non-economic goal-return of the Golan Heights from Israel, a U.S.
official said.

Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, the ranking Republican on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, said he was aware of pressure from countries
such as Russia and France, and urged the White House to consider such
requests.

"My own hope is that we would look at this," Lugar said. "That's the way the
coalition is going to be built."



Staff writers Carol J. Williams in Moscow, Henry Chu in Beijing, David
Holley and Maria De Cristofaro in Rome, and special correspondent Amberin
Zaman in Ankara, Turkey, contributed to this report